Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Golf Picks InnisBrook 2014

Power Ranks

Hoping Jordan Spieth can break through for 2nd win - but 15-1 Odds are Stupid low. 
Harris English is a threat at 18-1.
Tringale placed 3rd Last Year Good Value at 45-1. 
Pat Perez Ranked Very High - 7th Last Year - Bargain at 50-1.  
Some Good Young Guns at Good Odds too (See Above)
Rarely see Summerhayes on the Bet sheet - Like him a lot at 100.


Round 1

Nobodies Game
The morning Draw Faced cold weather and swirling winds. Only 7 players from that group shot under Par. They will play late today. Yesterdays afternoon groups will go out early in the morning Friday. Even with better conditions - the Afternoon Draw did not gain much ground. The Leaders only shot 3 and 4 Under.  Winds are calmer now. still a little cool n the 50s and scattered showers expected over the weekend. 

Jordan Spieth
Stumbled 3 Over on the Front Nine. Nice recovery though at 3 Under for the Back - He finished his Morning Round - still in the hunt - (Even).

No "Lee" Way  
Danny Lee leads at (-4). Neither He - Richard Lee or DH Lee were on the bet sheets. All 3 have become regulars on the leaderboards of late. Greg Chalmers 4th Last Year and in the Top 15 of Our Power Ranks - was also omitted from the bet sheets at LVH and William Hill sportbooks here in Vegas. If you can bet online - I strongly suggest it. 

Power Ranks
Off to a good Start 1 - 2 and 3. Couldn't bet Danny Lee - but Every and Perez at the Top (T2). It's early though and the we'll have a much clearer picture by the end of Round 2.


Round 2

Robert Garrigus
Had one of those days you dream of. He could do no wrong and was the only player shooting super low. He currently holds a 4 shot lead. However, he is a streaky player. I do not see him running away with this. He is very long - but - The greens are are tricky and spotty right now. The first two days were a highlight reel of missed puts. The weather has improved - making things a little easier - with two days left - it's still anyone's game - unless Garrigus has another super low round today. 

Our Power Ranks
Kevin Na (-4),  Pat Perez(-3) and Matt Every(-3) are on his heels in 2nd and 3rd place. 

Jordan Spieth
Is still in the running. He kept himself alive at (-1). If it gets slippery at the top for Garrigus - he's only a few shots off the lead and has a history of come from behind wins.


Round 3

Guilty as Charged
After Hooking his approach into the trees
Garrigus birdies the Hole.
"Put the Cuffs on - I stole another Hole."

When you hit your drive a mile off the Tee - You have two or three shots left - to get out of trouble with a wedge or Iron. He did, over and over again. Each time he hit a Tee shot into the hazards - everyone thought - this is it!  He's gonna double Bogey and give up the lead.  But time and time again - he was up and down for Par or Birdie. 

Length doesn't explain everything though. He still had to make the puts. On a day when no one could read the tricky greens - he sank put after put. His putting stats were terrible coming in. He went fishing for three days before the tourney (catching 30 fish)  instead of practicing. Golf is a Mind Game - his was somewhere between the Andy Griffith show and Bagger Vance. Instead of stalling in the 3rd round - he birdied twice out of the gate to run up a 6 shot lead. But, in the end - putting did catch up with him - he snagged his line during the final holes and finished with just a 1 shot lead. Garrigus (-8)

Our Power Rank Pick Kevin Na (-7) was on his tale the whole time. That's a whole different Mental Saga, Na has been prone to fits of hesitation on the tee - being timed by the officials for slow play as a result. 

So there you have it - a Happy go Lucky fisherman vs a Contender ready to climb a backstop screaming ("Fear Strikes Out" reference). They will face off in the final round. There's blood in the water now though. They are not alone. Justin Rose(-6), John Senden(-7) and other dangerous fish are about to start a feeding frenzy. 

I've always believed that not caring too much is an asset. If that is true - the outcome this weekend will be decided between the ears - not just between the Tee and Green. 


Final Round

The 7 Year Itch
was scratched by John Senden in a victory that took just 3 years short of a decade to accomplish. 

It was a tough pill for me to swallow - as I had bet on Senden several times in 2012 and early last year. He just hasn't done anythng for a long while. At 100-1 - he is the kind of name I usually throw $5 on - as I scan the bottom of the Odds sheet. I printed out my own picks with bet numbers this week - so didn't even look at sportbook sheet one last time before placing my bets - as usual. Ouch! This year - covering those 100-1s not a bad idea. 

It looked like a 2 man Race between Garrigus and Na. Then on the back Nine Sunday - they had dropped out of the race. 

Young Rookie -  Scott Langely took control and finished in the Clubhouse (-5).

Senden took the lead for a time and then fell back into a tie with Langley in the clubhouse at (-5).

This Opened the Door for Na - who made critical puts to tie the lead (-5). 

Senden birdied to pull ahead by 1. He then holed a 25 ft chip from the Rough to jump ahead to (-7).  

Na didn't give up - he sank another crucial put to pull within 1 (-6). On 18 Na had a 40 foot put to force a playoff. It provide a nice bit of tension - as the Final shot of the day - but hooked left - not even close. 

Hats off to John Senden for toughing it out 7 years - to finally prevail.

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