I feel good about our mix of Euro picks this week. PGA too, some great payers at decent odds. I think Tiger has fond memories at Jacks place and should play well. Leishman due to win & plays well here. Ricky looks good here this week. Staying on Cantlay and Schauffele. Caution: Rory ranks high here this week with a 2nd last week and a 4th in his last appearance here. Other big names like DJ. Spieth and Jason Day could spoil our party. I kept most bets around $5 to increase potential pay outs.
GOLF BANK BETS (Euro- Renato Panatore Added 200-1)
PGA Jordan Spieth owns this course with a win and 2 runner ups in his last 3 outings at Colonial. Although he still struggles badly with short puts - I think he knows the breaks here well enough to final grab a win. He had a local advantage last week too and did not win, so no sure things. I'm staying on Cantlayand Schauffele big again this week. Several other players are legit contenders at great odds in a strong field. The fairways are tight and tree lined - so driving accuracy will be at a premium and accuracy, not distance, will be the key to winning here.
EURO I'm going big on Paul Dunne this week after a stellar showing at his last links course event. Several others are legit contenders at great odds. Colsaerts and Burmester rank high this week at over 100-1.
For a dicey off week - we did great and nearly hit a winner on both tours. On the PGA Leishman led most of the way and finished 2nd. Once again, another week with nothing less than top 5 finishes. New Bank start this week! GOLF BANK
18 WINS IN 25 WEEKS 72%! We take the best Golf Win/Loss record in the world into a fresh new bank next week. 2 wins per tour over our next 5 week month and we are on our way to building a fat bank. Average spend $70 per week per tour.
ALERT! NO BANK THIS WEEK! I handicapped everything this week. However, PGA is not at normal venue and is a links course. Also Odds suck. EURO is a crazy mix of Stroke and Match Play. In summary, this week is slanted heavily toward the book. I do like the picks - Just not gonna start a new bank on what could be a sucker bet week. New Bank Starts Next Week!
PGA I'm not super excited about Byron Nelson this week. Not a lot of big names and the odds suck. A weak field does open the door for some players at good odds, but It is being payed at new (Links) course, and there is a ringer in the mix. With he Doomsday clock at 2 minutes to midnight, 5-1 are the kinds of odds you should get for the sun coming up tomorrow, but Jordan Spieth @ 5-1 is a member and his longtime mentor Ben Crenshaw designed the course. He is still struggling with short puts and over the last 3 weeks only has a 41st and a missed cut, but he does have 2 top 10s without a win in his last 6, so he is also due for a win. Jordan has paid better than most mutual funds and he looks like a safe investment this week. Beau Hossler is also a member and due to break through on tour. So, $50 on Spieth @5-1, $8 on Hossler @33-1, and that leaves $12 (Out of a $70 Budget). Marc Leishman @25-1 can dominate and plays well on links courses, so $10 on him. Daniel Summerhays @100-1comes in with back to back top 10s, I'll take him for $2.50. Peter Uihlein @60-1 is coming off a 5th and is a solid links player, looking to break through on the PGA after years on the Euro Tour. I'll borrow a couple bucks from the OTHER bank and put $5 on him this week.
EURO I am even less excited about another goofy format in Europe. Stroke play changes to match play that last 2 rounds in this one and makes it a dicey bet. Don't get me wrong, love the Euro Tour and what they do for the fans, like Beat the Pro, but the match play is usually not a good bet. We do have some hot trending players I will stay on this week though, and hope another one breaks though like Lagergren last week.
will always be winners from time to time that are on no ones radar. A
couple of those one last month Kodaira 250-1 and Landry 200-1, making
the average winner odds on the PGA tour over the last 5 weeks 100-1.
Nothing you can do about that. However, I have several sets of data I
pull picks from each week. I missed Bjork and Simpson last month. I now
have a checklist to make sure every set is checked, every week.
WINNER! 4 Week Losing Streak Ends! EURO We have never gone more than 4 weeks without a winner and that is still the case, thanks to Joakim Lagergren!
PGA We almost hit Big! After finishing in the 70s in his last 3 events - I stayed on Xander Schauffelle big $10 @ 100-1 for $1000. He finished 2nd.
UNFORCED ERRORS I did review the stats to see if I missed something not picking Simpson, we had him the week before. Truth is, I did, it wasn't glaring, but @ 80-1 he should have been one of our picks. There are about 7 sets of stats I look at each week. He qualified in one of them. I made 2 mistakes in this 5 week bank (Bjork) and (Simpson) that cost us $500 total. I have now installed a checklist for each set. So, we continue to improve and at 72%, still have the best record in the world picking golf winners.
GOLF BANK You can see below that our picks finished inside the top 5 every week for that last 5 weeks. Between the PGA, EURO and OTHER Banks, we had $200 per week max to spend or $1000. We ended with $438 left. Less than I expect, but far from disastrous. We could split the balance up among the tours and keep going, but rather than posting a lengthy bank ledger, we will reset this week with a fresh new 5 week bank. The plan of course is to make a nice gain over the next 5 weeks and apply a progressive bank strategy to maximize our gains over the next 12 months. If we show a nice gain over the next 5 weeks - we will "not" reset the bank. We carry over will our Win / Loss record on the new bank, so that stays accurate and legit. GOLF BANK
PGA Some great players at good odds. Going big on Patrick Cantlay and staying on Xander Schauffele big too. Sergio has a great record here. Casey, List and Stanley also look poised to compete. Marc Leishman doesn't rank high this week, but with 2 top 10s, I like him to show up and perform in a big, (almost major) like this. EURO Some great trending players and some longshots with a real chance at great odds. GOLF BANK BETS
Our longest streak without a win (4 wks) since Nov, 2017. But, still 71%, best in the world. I like Cantlay and staying on Schauffele this week big. One nice hit and the bank is fat. Good money management also keeping us in the game. When we projected the progressive bank over a yr, we allowed for a losing month and still finished with nice gains. Don't have one yet though! GOLF BANK
PGA (Only this week) Players face narrow, tree lined fairways on a very long track this week. The rough is short, but a lot of doglegs and trees put accuracy, as well as distance off the tee at a premium this week.
I'm staying on Xander Schauffele this week (Personally $20 pays $2000). He had a few bad outings recently, but he was a 30-1 favorite a month ago. I'm betting he bounces back and wins again soon - Love him at 100-1. Tiger's back and there are a host of other players at great odds that stack up nice this week. I'm not a fan of Mickelson or the local favorite Simpson, but both are trending and have a good record here. Tony Finau has also been trending and his length could help him break through here. Brooks Keopka also in the field, back from injury - with his distance - he seems like a good value at 45-1. Kevin Streelman actually ranked highest this week, followed by Ryan Moore and An Byeong-Hun.