Some of my analysis Friday morning was a but premature. One day into the event, imagine that? Huge win on Cantlay $1140 and $178 in position bets, so it turned out great, but learned some things too.
The $10 position bets did great! We Spent $80 on 9 Bets and Won $178.
The only problem is trying to stay within a $100 - $150 per week budget. I want at least 6, and preferably 8 position bets per event. So a mix of $5 and $10 bets, paying a minimum of $25 or maybe $30 should work.
The obvious problem I failed to address with Live Bets, is that only one can win. I went overboard on those in week 22 and had the whole first page covered on Sunday. There is a value there, but in moderation.
After Keopka jumped out and held a 5 shot lead all weekend at the PGA Championship, I was focusing on a runaway leader on Thursday. BTW, DJ almost caught him and I was able to bet DJ at a good price late Sunday. But, how often does a player jump out to a big lead on Thursday and win? Not often! Spieth had a fast lead week 22 and lost.
BET LIVE LATE
I will stick with the obvious assertion that nothing means anything until after the cut Friday night. Chasing early leaders is a fools errand. Save $20 and cover a high percentage leader Sat Night or Back 9 Sunday. Live bets are good High percentage wagers, but I will limit Live Bets to around $20 or $30 dollars.
I'm still fine tuning the budget. I would like a $100 per week budget. That's $500 for a 5 week month. If we set our minimum win at $250 for 2Win bets going in, 2 wins a month $500, breaks even. Then you add position bet wins, and a Live Bet win over 5 weeks and you have a nice profit. Also a lot of 2Win Bets pay $400 plus, or more like Cantlay $1140. 1 Longshot every few months can double the bank too. Here's the catch. To bet a few favorites, a few mid and longshot bets 2Win going in, you need about $60, Add $60 for Position bets and $30 for Live Bets - you're at $150. The multiple tour factor may address that. Two evens cost twice as much, but present an option that may work....
I can win just as much, just as often on the European Tour as The PGA. However, at $150 per week, per tour, were talking $750 per tour or $1500 for a 5 week month. I cant afford that and don't recommend anyone who cant, even thinking about it.
Some weeks we only have 1 event worth betting, like week 22 and 23. Maybe $150 is fine those 1 event weeks and cut down to $100 per tour on 2 tour weeks?
I'll keep sharing as I learn. As always, "please never bet anything you cant afford to burn. There is no such thing as a sure thing".
We've picked more winners, pre tournament, than anyone else in the world the last 7 years. My goal is to improve betting and money management strategy. The goal is to help you make money every month. We are not done yet, but learning and improving every week.
Yesterday, Thursday, Spieth moved quickly to -6. I covered Moore leading -7, at 16-1. But, needed to be watching the first few holes of Spieths early round, could have covered him at 10-1. Now he is 5-1. Watching the early morning wave today, hoping they make a move and buy him at 10-1 again. However, Thursday and Friday morning are risky, Spieth could fall off in the afternoon today. You have to wait till the cut on Friday to get a feel for how any players is really doing. He looked broken last week, so no pre tournament money on him, we will see?
Thursday bets should be reserved for preventing an uncovered, run away winner early. Like Keopka a week ago - 5 shot lead early, odds dropped to -125. I missed Spieth and overspent Thursday on other contenders, may pay off, but keeping Thursday to a bare minimum moving forward.
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I started betting probable favorites and contenders at 3-1 @ $10 for T10 and T20 Finishes.
After running the numbers, we seem better off waiting to bet them live at the same or better odds. Our longshots V Taylor and Stallings @ 250-1 to win, are doing better than our 3-1 T10s? The knock of course on Live Bets is they have to win. Only 1 will. So looking for decent odds for now on T20 finish bets at 10 or 12-1 for $5 now and will continue to fine tune that part of our 3 way Strategy.
Here are my Updated Notes from Thursday: