GOLF PICKS QUICKEN LOANS CONGRESSIONAL 2014

WEDNESDAY POST

POWER RANKS 

  UPDATED 6/25

ONE NAME...

JORDAN SPIETH

I've been chasing this kid for a win for about 6 tournaments.
He is way overdue. Was 6th here last year.
Streelman did not give up last week. I'm not either. 
Go Jordan!

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WEDNESDAY POST
BMW OPEN

Didn't Cap it.
Had a Dream 
Pablo Larrazabal 
Won an Open. 
Dont believe in that crap.
He Played well at WGC Early this Year.
What the hell. Worth $20 @ 50-1

Also Picked up 
Fabio Zanotti
Trending at 75-1




FRIDAY POST
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Round 2
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UPDATE!

 Pablo Shot 9 Under
to Tie the Lead!

SUNDAY POST
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Round 3
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HOLY SHIT!

PABLO TAKES 3 SHOT LEAD!
LATE ON SATURDAY
  ____________________________________

Final Round
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LIVE NOW ON GOLF CHANNEL 
330 AM (PST)

  Far From Over
Can't sit on lead. 
Pablo Stalling early. Lead down to 1 after 5 holes.

Field shooting Low Behind Him.
Hes Still at (-17)
6 at (-16)
7 at (-15) 
6 More at (-14)

ZANOTTI TIES PABLO
 I only Bet 2 Players
Zanotti was the other.

4 WAY PLAYOFF 
I Didn't See Zanotti in my Dream
But I Saw Him on the Bet Sheet
Go Fab!



___[ PLAYOFF HOLE 1 ]____

ZANOTTI TO STAY ALIVE

 SINKS IT!

___[ PLAYOFF HOLE 2 ]____
Stenson Sinks 15 footer
Forces Fab to Make 10 Footer
He Does
Bello Taps in   THEN THERE WERE 3

___[ PLAYOFF HOLE 3 ]____ 
3 FIND THE GREEN - WITH DRIVERS!
3 BIRDIES

___[ PLAYOFF HOLE 4 ]____ 
(OFF THE TEE)
BELLO AND STENSON MISS FAIRWAY
 FAB CENTER CUT 

 (APPROACH) 

BELLO IN THE WATER
STENSON LAYS UP
FAB ON THE GREEN 
 (SHOT 3) 
STENSON CHIPS

 STICKS IT
 
 THEN THERE WERE 2

___[ PLAYOFF HOLE 5 ]____
STENSON IN THE WATER!

 

FAB ON THE FRINGE

STENSON CHIPS FROM HAZARD LINE
OVERSHOOTS INTO BUNKER
BUNKER SHOT MISSES  
HE CONCEDES TO ZANOTTI

ZANOTTI WINS IT!

HE ALMOST LOST HIS CARD LAST YEAR
THIS IS HIS FIRST WIN.
CONGRATS FAB!


60-1 $10 $600!

BET TICKETS: $20
4 DAYS OF ENTERTAINMENT 0$
HITTING A WINNER 
2 WEEKS IN A ROW
WITH JUST 2 TICKETS...
PRICELESS!


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CONGRESSIONAL

FINAL TODAY!
____________________________________

Round 1
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Tiger+3, Jordan+3 and Day+2 Over Par.
We'll see if they can bounce back and Make the Cut.
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Round 2
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Tiger Misses Cut
Report Card
Physical A

Personal Life  A
Coach F
Golf Game D

I believe that Tiger is Happy in his personal life and Healthy Physically.  
He missed a great opportunity when he took time off. 
FIRE SEAN FOLEY!
Tiger is worse in every stat since he let Foley take over. 
He needs to fire that creepy little ego maniac.
He needs to kick him and his ManPurse out of his life
Who the Hell has the Ego to Change the Best Golfer in History? 

Arnold Palmer Called it
When Arnie saw Foley changing his short game he was Appalled.  
This week -  we saw why. 

I want Tiger to Dominate Again.
But He Never Will Under Foley.
His Swing Theory can not be Executed Consistently. 
It will take 6 months to a year just to get those Swing Thoughts out of his head. 
Wake up and smell the Coffee Tiger!
Before its too late.


Reed Tied for Lead
Shoots Mouth Off Again!

Will Piggy Wiggly Ever Learn?
After a good 2nd round, Reed bragged that the harder the course - the better for him. 
If the players dont kick your ass for a comment like that
The Course Will
I predict an ugly exit from the Top of the LeaderBoard this Weekend for Reed.

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Round 3
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ONE NAME.......
MINE IS MUD. LOL
Spieth failed to Impress again this week. 
(Even) Going in to Sunday
Leaders Stalled
But Will need about  7 or 8 Under Tomorrow
For a Miracle Finish?  

POWER RANKS IN THE MIX THOUGH
 
 GLAD REED HAS THE OVERNIGHT LEAD
WATCH HIM TALK SMACK TONIGHT
AND CRASH TOMORROW 
THAT WOULD PUT SPIETH JUST 4 BACK
GOING INTO SUNDAY

  ____________________________________

Final Round
____________________________________

SEEING RED ON SUNDAY 

WHO THE HELL ARE YOU REED?
Other Players Respect Tiger
They Don't Wear Red on Sunday.
Reed Thinks He's Above Them
Not just Red - Tiger's Actual Shirt Style
With he Stripe Down the Back
No Class Man
6 MISSED CUTS THIS YEAR
DROPPED 5 SHOTS 
FELL OFF THE FIRST PAGE OF LEADERBOARD 
AS I PREDICTED 
ONE MAN WEARS RED ON SUNDAY!
YOU'RE NOT WORTHY 
OF CARRYING HIS LUGGAGE
AND YOU'RE NOT TOP 5! 
GET OVER YOURSELF
_________________________________________ 

VEGAS BOOKS SCREWED ME!
PICKED STEFANI AS $5 COVER
NOT ON BET SHEETS
200-1 ONLINE

Shawn Stefani

1

34.0

71.25

-

-

-

-

-

-

34

200/1

Stan James

£10 Free Bet

HE LOST IN PLAYOFF
THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN A $1000 WIN!

LEADERS FALL 
ROSE STEALS IT!

 5 POWER RANKS
ON FIRST PAGE 
X

Golf Picks Travelers 2014

6 WINNERS IN 8 WEEKS
  DAYS NOT OVER?



Friday Post
IRISH OPEN 

 Rory made a Valiant Effort to Eagle the Last par 5
However, he did Miss the Cut by 1 Stroke. 
I Didn't have time to Cap or Post - Sorry.
Only Bet 4 guys. 
I do have Illomen and Zanotti on the first page. 

______________________________________________________

Sunday Morning Post
IRISH FINAL
WOW! NAILED IT!

Not Bad - 100+ guys only Bet 4 Tickets - $20 Total.
Miko impressed me earlier this year. 
He couldn't make a Birdie Put to Save his Life.
But he Made Clutch pars.
Including a nail biter on 18
He played Hide and Seek with 2 trees in a Row.
Then Sealed it with a 6 on that Final Par 5.

_____________________________________________________________________

TRAVELERS FINAL ROUND TODAY!
Wednesday Post 
Just Gut Picks This Week

Back to Normal Next week

Also Added 
Russell Knox at 75-1
Michael Thompson 100-1  
Brendan Steele  80-1



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Round 1
____________________________________

Sorry I Didn't Post Steele Early. 
He was a Last Minute Addition.
Don't Worry too Much
Wire to Wire Wins are Pretty Rare.


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Round 2
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 Bet Langley last week.
Bastards left him off the sheets
at Will Hill and LVH this week.

But - Steele and Moore Right Still on the First Page.

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Round 3
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Two at the Top 
Sharks Below
Cover - Ryan Moore and Top Pick - Garcia 
Moore's swing reminds me of Furyk - Scares me a Bit.
Garcia is a real Threat 2 Back.
Ton of great players within 4 or 5 shots
Should be a Good Sunday Final!


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Round 4
____________________________________ 

 EARLY ROUND 4

Sergio (My Top Pick) Throwing Darts!

 Langley 3 Holes 3 Birdies
Not on Bet Sheets. Bastards!

Cabrerra Lights Up the Front 9

 

 Not a Factor at this Point
But if he Gets Hot on the Back 9?
Could You Imagine a Sergio - Angel Final?
Got him for $10 at 125-1 = $1250
OK... Back to Reality...

CBS WILL PICK UP COVERAGE AT 12 NOON 

__FINAL HOLES ___

OUT OF NOWHERE!
 Kevin Streelman
Started the Day 5 Strokes Off the Lead
6 Straight Birdies 
And this for thee 7th for a One Shot Lead
2 Holes Left

Sergio Must Birdie 17 and 18
to Force Playoff!
Sinks it on 17

Sergio to Tie?

Left and Long

 

If Garcia could read the Greens - He Wins by 4.

Streelman Steals It!

 

7 straight Birdies!
Unreal!
Congrats!
NEVER GIVE UP!


 I Missed a 2nd Win Today
By a Stroke!
 

GOLF PICKS 2014 US OPEN

POWER RANKS 

Enough About Phil!

With Tiger Gone - it's been Mickelson 24 hours a day on Golf Channel.

 Tiger Winning by 15 Strokes in 2000

So far this year - Phil is nothing more than a Punch Line.
They Tried to Replace woods with Spieth - This Week Phil. 
12-1 for Him is a Joke.
He has an outside chance - But should be 30/50-1 or Higher.
I Covered Him for $10 
But - I Think it's more likely for him to Miss the Cut than Win.  
Phil gets indigestion when plays a good round.
He Gets full of Himself.  
He may already need an Alka Seltzer after this weeks media hand job. 
You heard it hear boys and girls -  I think Phil misses the cut.

Jordan - Serious Short Game
Thank god they are leaving Spieth Alone.

Spotlight Off Jordan Really Helps his Odds.  
If he can Handle to Disappointments the Green will Present.
He Can Throw Darts and Get Up and Down.

Legit Favorites
Watson, Mcilroy, Spieth, 
Scott, Garcia, Matsuyama
 
Don't Forget the Veterans
Jiminez, Stricker, Els,and Cabrerra
Experience and Mental Toughness

Caution!
Rock Hard - Turtle Back - Run Off Greens.

Unpredictable Hazards Below

This One is as Much About Luck as Talent.

Lets Hope Rain Softens this Obnoxious Course. 

Grab Some Young Guns and Longshots
Been Winning All Year
Good Value There
 (See Chart Above)

Cover the Field 12-1
Some Great Players NOT on the Bet Sheets

_____________________________________________________________

The Real Life Tin Cup

Imagine working on hard on your golf game for a year. You develop a low handicap and register it with USGA at your local course. By the end of your 2nd year - Your average is now less than 1.4 - say (73). At that point - $150 will get you a ticket to qualify for The US Open.

You enter a Local Qualifier and place near the top. You then have one tournament left to get in - a sectional - you place high there. You're in!

That's right - Hard Work and 2 Tournaments later - you are in one of the Biggest Sporting Events in the World - On National TV. 

I commend the USGA for sustaining this policy. The PGA funds its minor league on the backs of Amateurs. Sucking them dry through the Web.com Tour for entry fees in the neighborhood of $5,000. Before Web.com and the end of Q school  - those fees got you in a PGA event - if you qualified the week of tournament. These days - that only gets you on the Web.com Tour. Shame on you PGA. Way to go USGA!

What Has "Brown" Done For You?

For a sport dominated by a political party that has yet to acknowledge the existence of Global Warming - AKA Climate Change - they sure are reacting to it in an outwardly fashion. All week the buzz about Pinehurst renovation and the future of Course Design has been "Brown". That's right - they are predicting and encouraging an end to Green Fairways and Lush Rough. Why? Water is scarce and expensive. An average course spends a quarter - to half a million a year on water.  The Spin is "How Entertaining" a challenging course if for viewers. What a Crock!  

It's about the Bottom Line - Not Entertainment! If watching an NFL game in which both teams set records for incomplete passes - excites you  - the future looks bright. 

A Level Playing Field

Most of this season - heat and wind has dried out the greens by the weekend. The Result - Great approach shots bounce off the green and the winner is determined by Luck - "Not" Skill.  I'm all for conserving water. My local 9 Hole course just turned a huge water hazard into a canyon, Good for them! It was a waste of water. Even what Pinehurst has done by not watering the "Natural" Hazard areas (below) is great. 

But - you have to strike a balance. Keep the Fairways and Greens playable. If you know the greens are going to dry out - stop with the Turtle Back Greens and increase the landing areas. And don't shave off the Greenside Rough - it's there for a reason. To keep the ball near the green - in play. Take a look at the tiny spots the players will have to hit to this week to stay on the green (below).  No one wants to see 30 under win the Open. But if Par wins - that's a scoreless soccer game. With Tiger out - ticket sales are down by 50%. Wanna make it 90% next year? Wake up and smell the coffee guys. Us ugly Americans like to see scoring!

Luck Will Have It?

As I was writing this I started feeling really stupid.  If you recall my blogs early in the season - I recommended not even betting tournaments like this. I hope I get lucky and hit another winner anyway. A guy like Spieth, Rory, Els, Jimenez, Cabrerra or Kaymer may give us a great show of Mental Toughness and Prevail. However, it is just as likely that someone will blast the ball a mile off the fairway - scramble - get a lucky bounce on the green and in essence get a lucky win.The term scrambling is not a positive one in any other sport. Unless there is a competition for Fry Cooks. 

The "Art" of golf is keeping the ball on the fairway. Sticking shots within a few feet of the pin on the Greens and Draining Puts. When that doesn't matter anymore - not sure what game we are playing.

Pray for Rain.

If there is a Golf God -  Maybe it will rain every night and soften those Greens. One way or another - the world will be watching and I hope we see something amazing.

____________________________________

Round 1
____________________________________ 

 

Course Management

The players are not he only ones focused on Course Management. The Grounds Crew watered the greens Thursday morning and will do the same tomorrow morning. So, the afternoon wave today - will play the same softer greens - that this mornings first wave enjoyed. Expect even dryer conditions for today's morning wave when they Tee Off tomorrow afternoon.

 

I Apologize

When I first looked at the Bet Sheets - I Saw about 5 or 10 Guys that I Felt were Solid Favorites. By the time I sorted all the data -  the bet sheets were lost in the mix. On Wednesday night I was looking at Tee Times on TV and saw one name I forgot to bet or post.  All my bets were in - but at 9 o'clock at night - I ran down to the book to cover him. His name is Martin Kaymer. He was the only player to best 2 under and shot his 5 under in the more difficult Afternoon Round. He will get to play the softer greens in the morning. 1 under is a great Single Round Score for this course. If He shoots even 3 under tomorrow - His lead may be insurmountable. The scary part is that his personality and recent performances do not lead me to believe he will choke it away easily. The Course on the other hand - does not make an argument for any Bogey or even Double Bogey Free Rounds. 

Note: I just realized I did mention Kaymer pre-game in the "Luck Will Have It" Paragraph (above). Not in my Top Picks though - sorry.

Alone in His Field

Mickelson (E)
Started well at (-2) but proceeded to miss half a dozen fairways and 4 or 5 birdie puts to finish Even for the Round. I honestly believe that he enjoys the attention his shots from

the hazards bring - so much - that he neglects his Fairway and Approach accuracy.  I will say his Video: "Secrets of the Short Game" is the best I've ever seen. I recently heard Trevino has one even better, but have not seen it.  

20 Year Old Veteran

Spieth (-1)

Hit most fairways and approaches. His scrambling was only equaled by his patient veteran like course management. Only a tough, long, bogey put on 18 - kept him out of 2nd place - finishing (-1) for the Round. 

Bubba Slump

Watson (+6)
I give Watson a hard time. But, I truly think he is maturing. He is possibly the most gifted Golfer on tour. He just missed too many fairways and approach shots today. He told the media he would lay up more this week. I believe that was a mistake. Bubba - should hit it as far as you can and use his superhuman short game to get up and down. That's what he has been doing on tough courses all year - with great success. Shorter Tee shots just make those up and downs a lot longer. 

Direct TV Alert!

If you were watching the special US Open Coverage on Direct Tv today - you may have missed the end of the afternoon Round today. 

US Open coverage Continues Tomorrow Morning on ESPN at 6 AM.

NBC Continues Picks up Coverage at 12 Noon.

I guess there's some kind of ball kicking contest going on? LOL.

Here is the Full Weekend Channel Schedule:

LeaderBoard
Lemmings?

Remember the Old Apple Ad - Walking Off the Cliff Blindfolded? 
This Course is so Ridiculous - With the Possible Exception of: Kaymer,  Spieth and a Few Others - I Expect Major Lead Changes on a Daily Basis

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Round 2
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RUNNING AWAY?
KAYMER 3 UNDER ON FRONT 9 
Hitting Fairways and Greens
Up and Downs
Draining Crucial Par and Birdie Puts
 Great Course Management 
And Patience

 

NOW (-10) THRU 14 HOLES
7 SHOT LEAD!
The Tourney is Now His to Win or Lose.
He Could Par the Weekend and Still Win It.
It's Over
Unless He Crashes
And
Someone Pulls Off A Miracle.

He has Stolen the Spotlight from Phil
Will MIckelson Phone it in and Miss the Cut? 


KEN DUKE
EARLIER TODAY
HOW TO GET OUT OF A BUSH

STEP BY STEP INSTRUCTIONS


 Der Beste
 
 Just the Best. When he won the Players we all knew he had something special.
I always say, in love, friendship or business -  "People tell you what they are going to do." I guess it's true in sports as well.  Although English may be his 2nd language, Kaymer told us. "Just play Golf."  In an Era where Swing Gurus - Swing Thoughts and Media Pressure can distract the hell out of a player.  Martin made a conscious decision to put all that aside the moment a tournament begins. No swing coach with a video cam in warm ups. No Boasting "I'm Top 5!.  A Humble, Pleasant demeanor with the Media. He just put his head down a played!

Gut Picks

I will be looking at the Bet Sheet Prior to Calculating Stats each week now and Posting Gut Picks ahead of Power Ranks. Just like NFL - by the end of the season - your subconscious sees things through osmosis that the stats might miss. 

So, How do I feel about running down to the Sports Book at 9pm to add him to my bets? 

Torn, I went there to put $20 on him and decided to cover Walker and a few others instead. Only put $10 on him = $400 if he wins. So a big wins becomes a nice cover.  But at the end of the day - How do I Feel about not missing him altogether? 

Slow Down - It's Only Friday!

Michael Lawrence voiced his strategy for the rest of the field on Thursday Night. Leader at (-5) Rest of Field (-2) or worse. Be Patient - Try to shoot 2 or 3 Under for 3 Days = (-8) or (-10) by end of day on Sunday.  If the Leader Drops 2 or 3 Shots - you're Right in it. Don't Go too hard on Friday and Miss the Cut. A Dozen of the Worlds best Players could have used that advice. The Following Player Missed The Cut Yesterday:

Luke Donald: 1 shot
Bubba Watson: 1 shot
Charl Schwartzel: 1 shot
Jason Dufner: 1 shot
Hunter Mahan: 1 shot
Miguel Angel Jimenez: 1 shot
Lee Westwood: 3 shots
Nick Watney: 3 shots

Through Their Fingers

A couple others got there and Fell. Mickelson (-2), Spieth (-3). Both got to the first page of the Leader Board and failed to Par in to stay there.

Jordan Spieth - Getting Out of Trouble - Staying Out?

Jordan (-3) and T3 at one point - played a brilliant short game again today. When he missed fairways and greens he got up and down and made clutch puts for Par or Birdie. However, he pushed 2 Tee Shots Right on 16 and 17 for Back to back Bogies to Finish just (-1). If he starts hitting Fairways and Green 60 or 70% of the time again - that short game will get him a lot of wins. I know everyone wants him to close Now - but it is the Us Open for Christ's sake. He's still Under Par - Phil is +3, Watson, Donald and Westwood were sent packing. 

Phil Mickelson - Not Overly Optimistic

Changing your Putting Grip the day of the tournament is desperate and ego-maniacal at best. It did NOT keep him form Missing short Par Puts. After a week of hearing about at Mickelson ad Nauseam - The attempt to Replace Tiger with a Great White Hope - seems to have failed again. He got to (-2) early - only to collapse to (+3). Nothing new for Phil this year - and "Spieth is the one who can't Close? Phil stated in his Post Round interview that he was "Not Overly Optimistic." With you on that Phil.

Some Stayed The Course

 

Brendon Todd (-4)

Who I did Pick in the Top 2 - Is (-4). The Sports Books didn't even give him odds and put him in the Field at 12-1 - I covered that for $20. 

Kevin Na (-3)

Made My Power Ranks and Once Again Played Patient, Effective Golf. 

Brandt Snedeker (-3)

Who I did not cover - scares me a little, as he seems to be geting back on Track after a Lack - Luster Year.

Weather On His Side

No Rain Expected and Temps in the High 80s.

The Already Merciless Greens will Dry Out.

The Mighty Will Fall. 

Par Golf Should Win This for Kaymer.

"Just Don't Look Down Martin. "

 

Can Anyone Catch Him? 
With Dried Out Turtle Back Greens - My First Answer is NO!.

If He Stalls
These 3 Are Close Enough to Make it Interesting. 
 Todd (-4)
Na (-3)
 Snedeker (-3)


Further Back?
2 Names Have the Magic to Pull Off a Miracle
Rory (-1)
Jordan (-1)


Coverage Continue NBC 9AM (PST) Saturday
____________________________________

Round 3
____________________________________ 


  __Front Nine__

On 2
Kaymer Finds Native Area
Drops a Shot

On 4
Kaymer Pulls One Left

 No Relief

This for Bogey!

Sinks It!

 On 5
Kaymer Going Native!

 OMG!
Sticks It From the Weeds!

Eagle!

__After Nine__

__Back Nine__

Trouble On 12?

UnShakeable

Jordan Spieth
Fairways Missed

After Back to back Birdies on the Back 9  
Spieth Ended with Bogies to Finish +1  
However
Once Again 
He bettered a World Class Partner
Adam Scott +3

Leaders Fall
 

Kaymer Bounces

An Eagle is the Best Cure For Bogey


 Still Der Beste

 

Coverage Continues Sunday 9 Am (PST)


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Final Round
____________________________________

 Let The Scoring Begin
 Once Again - I Salute the USGA.
Pin Placements have been Moved up and Positioned for Scoring. 


Unlike the PGA - they Realize we like to see Scoring.
Good News - Bad News For Field
Good News - They Have a Chance to Score Low
Bad News - So Does Kaymer
Prediction
Kaymer Shoots 2 Under or Better, and Wins


__Front Nine__

Ricky Goes Afoul

An Errant Tee Shot and Wild Chip Led to This
He would Sink a 20 foot Put - But for Double Bogey

Kaymer Stays the Course (-9)
No Challengers Yet
Compton Closest at (-4)

Closest Challenger
Compton (-4)
This For Par

Painful Bogey!




Still Der Beste
After 9

__Back Nine__

Back to 9 Under

To Get to 10 Under

Larger Than Life

And This To Finish

 UNCONTESTED

WINNER!

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