Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Golf Picks BayHill 2014

Matt Every Wins! 

Power Ranks Pay Off
1st (Every)
and 2nd Place (Bradley)


Here Are My Picks
Feeling Good This Week!
Maybe I'm Dellusional
But Think We Covered a Good
Cross Section of The Field
Tiger Woods Out - WD Back Spasms!
Adam Scott @12-1 Played Twice - Last 8 Years - 2 MC
Justin Rose Solid Favorite
Low Odds But Have to Cover Him

Experience Counts
Watching Last nights replay of last year - I didn't see anyone sticking Approach shots within 6 feet. Not because they can't - because they wont even try. These greens have undulation, slopes and run offs surrounded by water or hazards. 

Experience at this course wil be at a Premium. You have to know where to place the ball. So, I did not bet Bombers or Young Guns this week. 
Solid Putting should be the Key to Victory this week. 

Kevin Na may let me down this week. But he was 2nd last week Putting extremely well under pressure. He has 4 top 10s this year without a Win and 2 Top 10s at BayHill - a 4th and a 2nd. 
Good value at 40-1.

Power Ranks 
The 10-13 Column 
is a Rank of Finishes Last 4 Years.


Round 1

Merrick Finished (-7) T2

Adam Scott (-10)
I did not even include Scott as the Power Ranks. I was wrong in saying he had Never played Bayhill - but not by much. He has played 5 times. But - only Twice in the last 8 years Missing the Cut both Times. So, how did he do it? Long Eagle Puts on the Par 5s.  He did hit the Fairways and Greens and had only 23 Puts in his Round. PGA Avg - 29. The guy is for real - he has  8 or 9 Rounds at 62 or below in his career. Like Garrigus last week - he scored on par 5s. Like Garrigus last week - He is faced with the challenge of holding an 18 shot lead through 72 Holes?

The Parties Over.
As I Predicted - No one was Pin hunting on Thursday, Putting was the name of the game yesterday. Round One featured a Record number Long Puts - and I mean Long! 4 over 50 feet Several over 70 feet. Mr Palmer won't let that continue. The kids threw a party with the parents out of town. Daddy 's Home Now and he's Pissed. Look for Arnie to Turn Off the Sprinklers and Hide the Pins.

Ryo Ishakawa (125-1) - 2nd Place (-7)
After I missed Senden last wek at (100-1) - If Ryo wins this week - I may stab myself in the leg with a fork. Didn't take my own advice - Look at the bottom of the bet sheet and cover the longshots this year. Better than Geico - $5 could make you $500. $625 in the case of Ishakawa. 

Will the Stats Prevail?
I leaned on stats this week and still feel good about the Picks. The greens were soft and they were still barley staying on the green. Thus the Long Puts. Not saying Scott Wont be there - just saying it ain't over yet. By Saturday Night - I expect to see some of Our Power Ranks on the First Page of the Leaderboard.

Bubba Huey (WD) Allergic to Embarrassment 
Stupid is what Stupid Does. 3 "Tin Cup" Style water shots were a new low for the Man-child. 
At least in Tin Cup he was aiming at the Pin - not the fairway.  After a 7 on the front 9 18th, an 11 on the Back 9 6th hole - was all Watson's Enormous Ego could take.  He withdrew after the Round due to "Allergies". The Pollen count is high - but not as high as his blood pressure. I think the actual medical term for this disorder is Acute Cerebral Deflation.


Round 2

Adam Scott - Just Better
than the rest of the field. Like Garrigus last week - he is scoring on Par 5s and holds a 36 Hole Lead. Unlike Garrigus - he is hitting damn near every Fairway and Green and Knows how to close. With a 7 Shot lead - if he only shoots 2 Under both of the next 2 days - The 3 players in 2nd will have to shoot better than 11 under on the weekend just to tie him. This one may be over before the weekend starts. Bayhill does NOT have a history of players shooting low and coming from behind - against even a 4 shot lead. But 2 days left and anything can happen. 


Round 3

Power Ranks Storm the Leaderboard!

(T2) Keegan Bradley(-12), Every(-11) and Molinari (-10) on the First Page. Another 3 Challenged the Lead and fell back late in the round to the 2nd page. Win or Not - Our Power Ranks have shown up Strong this week. Scott (-15) stumbled a  bit in Round 3 - opening the door a crack. He now has just a 3 shot lead over Bradley. Everyone has one bad round in a 4 day stretch. Cant really call 1 Under a bad round. So, it Remains to be seen if today was it - or if we'll see a bad round out of Adam Scott - and  Fireworks tomorrow


Final Round

Patrick Reed T-15 Well off the Lead
A week ago Twitter blew up after Patrick Reed boasted that he is "A Top 5 Player". Self confidence is great in your own head - But patting yourself on the back in public like that is classless and just plain stupid. 

As Patrick Reed warmed up on the practice range today  - Todd Lewis made the point that his Top 5 comment will bite him in the ass eventually.

Raymond Floyd pulled a similar stunt prior to a Ryder Cup - Calling his team "The best 12 players in the world". He was handed his ass by a European Team that didn't care much for his comment.  More 

Can't help but think of Susie Green on Curb your enthusiasm - calling her husband a "Fat...F..k ever time I see his face. 

Kevin Na
On Friday, Ugly hecklers in the gallery harassed Kevin Na to the point that he asked officials to intervene.  Fellow players said the verbal onslaught was the worst they'd ever heard. Na suffers from an emotional or mental weakness that causes him to hesitate, almost panic on the the Tee at times. The condition has caused him to be put on the closk and timed by officials on several occasions - including Thursday - during Round 1. 

His fans and friends took things into their own hands on Saturday. They followed in the gallery wearing printed T-shirts "Kevin NA - Worth the Wait" - to show their support. Way to go Guys!

Heroes and Villains
Neither one is really either. But that's what makes watching the PGA fun. Gotta have players you hate and those you love. Makes screaming at the TV way more fun.
Final Round
It's Really up to Adam Scott whether or not we have a thrilling finish today.  If he stalls or drops a few strokes - a Feeding Frenzy will ensue. If he shoots 3 or 4 Under - he'll cruise to an easy win and the final will just be a formality.  

Scott (-13) 
Misses 5 footer on 1st for - Bogey.
In the water on the 2nd hole - Bogey. 
Cold get real interesting! 
Our Picks:
T2 Every (-12)
T3 Molinari (-10)
Bradley 3 Bogies - On 1st  2 holes (-9) 

Leader Scott (-14) 
T2 Every (-12)  Made clutch par Put on 5th
T2  Kokrak Chips from Bunker (-12) Turns Bogey to Birdie on 6 with a great up and down.
3rd Bradley coming back (-11) 
T4 Hadley Moves to (-10) 
Molinari Drops to (-9)

Leader Scott (-13) Plugged in Bunker on 7!. Leaves Chip 20 feet Short! Bogey!
T2  Kokrak (-12) From Fringe Bunker - chips to within 2 Feet for Par.
T2 Every (-12). From Bunker - chips to 10 feet past for Par? Bogey!
T3 Every (-11). x
T3 Bradley (-11)
Leader Scott. Approach  Bunker on 8th. Chip within 5 Feet. Par
Bradley. Approach  in Rough on 8th. Chip within 5 Feet. Par
Kokrak (7th) Tee Shot in the Rough. Approach In the Bunker. Chip inside a Foot! Par.
Every (7th) Tee Shot - out of bounds - on cart path - runs down path to just in-bounds!
Approach On the Green -  inside 16 feet. SINKS THE PUT! 

Leader Scott. (-13)
Tee shot in Gallery Rough. Approach Thru green onto Fringe up against Rough. Chip to within a foot for Tap in Par.
T2 Every (-12)  20 Foot Birdie Put - MAKES PUT TO TIE THE LEAD!.
T2 Kokrak (-12)
3rd Bradley. (-11)
Tee shot just 10 yards in from Scott in Rough. Approach bounces off Fringe on Green inside - about 25 feet from Pin. Put Past Pin left 3 Feet. Puts for Par


T1 Scott. (-13)
Par 4 Fairway. Approach next to Pin - but Bounces 25 ft Past PIn. Misses Put - Tap in for Par 
T1 Every (-13)  
Par 4 Fairway. Approach Hole High 25 feet.ft for Birdie? Misses - Tap in for Par
3RD Kokrak (-12)
4TH Bradley. (-11)

Ha Ha! Mr. Top 5 - Patrick Reed (-1) and Now hes in the Water!
Shouldn't he be at Least T5? Double Bogie! (+1)
BTW - Who the Hell does he think he is - wearing Red on Sunday?  
Not Worthy of Carrying Woods Luggage.

T1 Scott. (-13) Par 4 11th 
Approach  within 15 feet. Misses Birdie by a foot for Tap in Par. 
T1 Every. (-13) Par 5 11th ( Par 5! chance for Birdie?)
Tee Shot Right Rough - sitting up - kind of. 3rd Shot from Fairway Fringe 93 yds?

LEADER Every. (-14) Par 4 13th
Tee shot Fairway. Approach Hole High 20 ft. MAKES THE LONG BIRDIE PUT!
2ND Scott (-13) Par 5 12th ( Par 5! chance for Birdie ? )
Tee shot edge of 2nd cut. 2nd shot  Lay up Fairway. Long Birdie Put 2 feet short.
3RD Kokrak (-12) Par 4 13th
Tee shot Fairway. Approach at the Pin - Bounces to inside 12 feet. Misses Birdie Put Par.

LEADER Every. (-15) Short Par 3 14th 203 yds
Tee shot - Fringe 40 ft from Pin. Birdie Put - up the ridge - inside 1 foot. Par!
2ND Scott (-13) Par 4 13th
Tee shot - Inside 20 ft.
3RD Kokrak (-12) Short Par 3 14th 203 yds
Tee shot - In the Bunker. 2nd - in the Rough - 3rd - about 2 ft for Bogey. Bogey (-11)

LEADER Every. (-15) Par 4 15th 481 yds
Tee shot little shot but in Fairway. Approach. Carries Greenside Bunker onto green
Will have 50 ft Put for Birdie.  Perefect line 2 ft short for Tap in Par. 
2ND Scott (-13) Short Par 3 14th 203 yds
Tee shot 50 ft Short of green in fairway. Birdie Put from fringe 8 ft Long.Bogie!

LEADER Every. (-15)  Par 5 16th 501 yds
2nd Shot in Flat Sand below a Large Root Has a Shot left of a Tree. 
139yds to flag in distance - Pin just inside the waters edge. 
Caddie suggests Lay up - Play it safe and just give 1 shot back.
Every says it's a par 5 - that's like giving up 2 shots. Scott is 1 hole behind him in the Final Pairing- still has this Par 5 to play. 
Ha Ha - They are laughing now - good sign I hope. Caddy says put it in the F-ing Fairway and up and down 75% of the F-ing Time for par. Shot 3 in the Fairway 96 yds back.
Shot 4 Aiming past Pin to avoid water front of Pin. Backboard behind Pin - looking for No Spin and ball to roll back to Pin. Land left of Backboard - stops 20 ft away for Par? 
Hope Scott brought a magazine - this took a while LOL
Shot 5  3 FEET LEFT FOR BOGEY! Pushes in for Bogey (-14) 
2ND Scott (-12) Par 4 15th 481 yds
Tee shot Fairway.. At the Pin short -roll down off the elevated green 45 ft  left of Pin. 
Chips onto Green within 15ft for Par. Huge Par to stay 2 back (-13).  

LEADER Every. (-14) 17th Short Par 3 - 210 yds. 
2ND SHOT For Birdie From the Bunker - OMG! HITS THE PIN ALMOST IN!
Should have Gone in - Par (-14) 

2ND Scott (-12) Par 5 16th 501 yds
Tee shot Fairway..APPROACH INSIDE 20 FEET!
Misses Long Eagle Put. 3 Foot for Birdie to Tie the Lead?
Misses - Par! 


LEADER Every (-14)  Par 4 18th  463 yds
Waiting for Kokrak.
Tee shot Left Fairway. 
Approach - 175 yds Across the Water? Narrow Green - Water Front - Bunker Behind. 
OOH NO! - HITS EDGE OF GREEN INTO ROUGH! Hes Laughing. Good Sign - I Hope.
Chips from Rough about 3.5 Feet from Pin for Par?  
Biggest Put of his Life Coming Up!
2ND Scott (-12) 17th Short Par 3 - 210 yds
2nd Shot From Bunker - inside 7 Feet for Par?

LEADER Every (-13) Clubhouse

2ND Bradly (-12) Par 4 18th  463 yds
Tee shot Fairway. 
Approach - on the Green - 40 feet fro Pin. 
Put to Tie and Force Playoff Coming! 
Misses Just Left!

WINNER Every (-13) 
Tears in his eyes during Victory interview.  Voice Cracking.
He Deserved a Win. Good for Him!  

 Matt Every Wins!
Power Ranks Pay Off
1st (Every)
and 2nd Place (Bradley)

Final Leaderboard


No comments:

Post a Comment