THE US OPEN 2015 (ROUND ONE)

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Luck of The Draw
The players in the morning wave Thursday - enjoyed the best conditions we will see this week.
The air was moist and greens were soft. As Jordan Spieth, who watched the morning round before his afternoon tee time described it "I even saw the balls stick and spin a little".  
Winds picked up in the afternoon, the fairways and greens dried out a little. Yesterdays late wave tees off on Friday morning. Anyone who shot low in the late wave Thursday - can put themselves in a great position for Saturday with a good round Friday morning.

The Leaderboard should give us this info on Thursdays and Fridays.
They don't.  I will:

M - Players from Thursday Morning Wave
A - Players from Thursday's Afternoon Wave.

Friday Forecast:  (74)  20% chance of rain in the afternoon. Wind 8 mph This could give Fridays late wave a bit of a break. If greens are moist, and wind calmer than on Thursday afternoon. On the other hand, With a little rain - those rolling perimeters may hold the ball up when wet, that could keep bank shots from falling back down toward the hole.  

Top Pick (Ben Martin) 
Showed up Friday after several missed cuts on tour. We predicted this, based on his playing well at Chambers in 2010. His good late wave performance - gives him a shot at staying atop the leaderboard with a good morning round on Friday.

Top Pick (Jordan Spieth)
Showed up in the late wave as well. It wasn't Jordan vs Rory. Instead it was Spieth vs Day. They traded punches sticking approach shots so close to each other - the balls collided. His caddy Michael Greller was very helpful - having carried the bag at Chambers 40 times previously. Jordan played well, but was on track for (-4) and fell a little short.

Looking at the Hole
when he puts is the only thing that could cost Jordan a 2nd Major this week. He missed 10 puts inside 10 feet in his last outing. It actually cost him a win - directly. He finished (-13). Playoff was (-15). Do the math. He is currently 200th from 5 Feet - the range in which he looks at the hole. Yesterday he butchered a 5 foot Eagle put doing this. Birdies are at a premium here. One per day = 4 lost strokes. Looking at the hole takes your eyes off your putter swing path, the contact point with the ball and the putter face follow through. Mistaken for a positive mental exercise - It is nothing more than a variation on Chevy Chase putting blindfolded in Caddy Shack. Sure, you can get away with it half the time on short puts - But you should make 99% of those. STOP IT JORDAN!

Big Tickets with a Chance!
Ollie Schniederjans (A)  (-1) $5 @ 1000 = $5000
and 
Joost Luiten (A) (-2) $5 @ 500 = $1500

Fowler's Folly
As I predicted - http://stateoftherock.blogspot.com/2015/06/the-real-dirt-on-chambers-bay.html

telling everyone how much you love the course - bit Ricky in the ass on Thursday. He was one shot worse than Tiger at (+11). Phil voiced his admiration the course as well and as predicted - may join Fowler in front of the TV on Saturday - if Phil struggles in the late wave on Friday. 

Michelson came out hot (-3) on the front nine, but settled for (-1) in perfect conditions.  Ricky needs to stay as far away from Phil and his Hijinks as possible. I like Ricky, he is good at links courses and had a great practice round. But he needs to learn to keep his mouth shut when things are going well. Something Phil will never do. His I's are too close together in interviews. 

Walk Away Tiger (Delete and Reboot)

Woods shot (10+) on Friday. The only goods news as Tiger put it "At least I kicked Ricky's ass".   I've always said, practicing when you're tired is a bad idea. You just ingrain bad technique into your muscle memory. Tiger isn't tired, but his technique is bad. So is his method, his "process" the whole damn thing. He needs to leave the public eye, lose the swing coaches and stay away golf all together for a few months. Why? to clear his mind and forget everything Foley taught him and anything he's working on with Como. I said it would take a year to get those insane swing thoughts out of his head. http://golfpicks.blogspot.com/2014/08/tiger-woods-dumps-foley.html  He hasn't. He's just sorting through them - taking a salad bar approach. 

Back to Butch

I'm not a fan of Butch. His school here in Vegas over-charges the public for carppy lessons. However, I'm sure he gives pros his best. Woods won 8 Majors under Butch. 7 under Haney. But Hank wrote a tell all book. He's not going back to Haney. Butch is where it all began for Tiger (other than his Dad). A good long break, followed by a return to where it all started - would be a recipe for success for Tiger in my opinion.

      

GOLF PICKS THE US OPEN 2015 (PREVIEW AND PICKS)

THE FIELD - BEST BET IN VEGAS THIS WEEK!

Don't get me wrong, I have several top picks. However, if you are a casual fan or a serious better - you can't ignore the field this week at The Open. William Hill is Paying 20-1. So $40 gives you a serious shot at $800 and a reason to watch

First the pros are not comfortable at this relatively unknown course. This leaves the door open for an unknown to factor.

Second, This is a very large and prestigious field. They left a lot of talent off the bet sheets at William Hill. (see below)

Finally, It's anybody's game on these types of courses. Luck plays a huge roll. It shouldn't, but it does. A few bad bounces and the favorite is gone. A few good ones and "what's his name" is leading on Sunday. If you bet the Field and see a name you never heard of atop the leaderboard - you got em for $800.  There are a lot you have head of too (see below)

Inside Tips

Jordan Spieth's 

caddy was married at Chambers Bay. He caddied there over 40 times. Jordan is Top 60 in GIR and Top 10 in Puts and Scrambling

Ryan Moore

Lives nearby and will be very familiar with Chambers Bay. 

Morgan Hoffman and Ben Martin
have both been hot recently played well at Chambers in 2010. Look for players that did well there. There are 4 or 5 more who played well there too and are Field Bets this week. Ben An or Byeong - destroyed a field in Europe 3 weeks ago, he also performed well there in 2010,

Martin Kaymer
has the kind of level head and cool demeanor that could do well here.  

McDowell, Schwartzel, Casey, Ooosthuizen and Donald
Have all performed well at the British Open and other links courses. 
They are a bargain at 60 to 125 -1. I think one of them is bound to show up.

Longshots 
have a chance this week too - look at the odds (below) and pick a few.
What the hell, Darren Clarke won 4 years ago, lost 40 pounds and is 1000-1. Why not for $5?
Live Odds Westgate (LVH)

 HERE'S THE ENTIRE FIELD

IN SEPARATE SHEETS 

TOP 25 PICKS 

 

BEST LONGSHOTS

GREAT FIELD PLAYERS

 20-1 AT WILLIAM HILL
(LEFT CLICK ON IMAGE)
 (RIGHT CLICK "VIEW IMAGE")
(MAGNIFY)

 FAVORITES

I'M NOT BETTING 

More Open Coverage Tomorrow ......

GOLF PICKS ST JUDE AND LYONESS

Difficult course, taking some top ranked players (below)

Also taking a chance on the field with some great young players (below)
Including Bryson Dechambeau

PICKS

STATS JUDE

____ST JUDE____

____ROUND 2_____

WE HAVE KEOPKA

AND THE FIELD BABY!

 ____ROUND 4_____

Fabian Gomez had the overnight lead and was looking for his first win on Sunday. A feat accompanied by enough pressure to split an atom. He took what the course gave him and was home safe until he missed the green into the bunker late in his round. With Owens and Jones in pursuit - well - A picture paints a thousand words.

The Icing on the Cake  was this long put to finish on 18.

Felicitaciones Fabian!

OUR FIRST FIELD BET THIS YEAR

THIS YEARS FIRST FIELD WINNER!

FIELD: Denotes players not listed on bet sheet - delegated to 3-1 when odds opened.

SportsBook: William Hill.

____LYONESS____

____ROUND 2_____

____ROUND 3_____

SAT 5:17 AM 

Bourdy looked like he would run away with this, but they are lighting it up and bridging the gap right now on Golf Channel.

____ROUND 4_____ 

Bourdy Stalls

After 2 it was his to lose. He failed to close

Bello Close Again

A fantastic front 9 Saturday cooled off on the back. Rafa tried to mount a comeback Sunday, but was a bridesmaid once again.

Wood Capitalizes

A late birdie run captured it for Chris. 

x

GOLF PICKS MEMORIAL AND NORDEA MASTERS

 SORRY - NO STATS

BUSY THIS WEEK

JUST GUT PICKS

_____MEMORIAL 2015_____

TOP: SPIETH , ROSE, FOWLER, WOODS, J. THOMAS, B. TODD, BERGER

VALUE:  DANNY LEE,  MCNEIL, BEN MARTIN, DUFNER, STICKER,

____ROUND 2_____

Parachute Ride
for Jordan Spieth on Friday.  It looked like he was about to repeat his performance at HERO by destroying the field at Memorial Friday. 6 Under on the front nine and looking like nothing could stop him. Something did. The greens at Murfiled Village. He missed 5 or 6 birdie puts inside 10 feet. including at short 6 footer following a great approach shot. In his defense, the spotty, lighting fast greens have befuddled everyone so far this week. 

Jordan is a quick study though. At 21 we already speak of him like we would a Steve Stricker, and rightfully so. He is very capable of figuring out the greens and turning in two 8 under rounds to once again make the rest of the filed look like children.

Up against the Wall Motha Duffer
a few years before I discovered Jordan Spieth on the bet sheets - I locked onto a chubby, wild haired wonder named Jason Dufner. His laconic nature wasn't for everyone. Too my delight the rest of the world caught on and the Dufnering craze began. I used to refer to those who still knocked him as Anti-Dufites. 

He's Back?
After disappearing from the leader boards, and what must have been a painful divorce, his lack of emotion comes in handy. You could never tell how he felt anyway. No emotion after a 40 foot birdie put or approach shot within inches of the cup. BTW he drained a 40 footer that had more slope than a turn at Daytona Friday.  He is presently in sole 2nd (-11). His only challenge in the past was the short puts. If he keeps throwing darts at the pins and makes the short ones this weekend - his ex will have to see him again or turn off the sports channels.

____ROUND 3_____

The Euro Tour Invades Memorial
The top 3 names on the leaderboard are all from Europe

Justin Rose 
Jumped out to what may be an insurmountable 3 shot lead (-15) on moving day.


Jordan Spieth 
was an also-ran, again, so far this week. He's back in the pack with a mediocre (-6).


Tiger Woods 
shot an (85) the worst round of his PGA career on Saturday, at a course where he had never missed the cut and had won 5 times.

The Trouble with Tiger
"There may be a perfect swing out there - but executing it consistently will be just as difficult as finding it."
Full Article







____ROUND 4_____ 

Jordan Spieth
missed a dozen puts around 10 feet this weekend. He is 200th for puts from 5 feet. Those are the ones where he looks at the hole. Enough Jordan! That is like looking at the right field fence and trying to hit a baseball. Do your job McCormick, and make him stop. In his defense, the greens were tricky. OK,  I'll give him 6. That leaves 6 he should have made. 6 + 13 = 19 and an easy win. 

Valiant Effort
Spieth did mount a great comeback on Sunday 7 Under.  But once again, it was too little too late.The competition is stiff. He'll need two low rounds to win again.







The Best Golf
began on the 18th hole. Rose in trouble in the rough - stuck an approach within 3 feet to force a playoff. Rose and Lingmerth then expertly traded punches

A Huge Crowd 
swarmed around every hole as a sudden death playoff began between Rose and Lingmerth








Justin Rose
drained a long put and finished with a fist pump.






 


King Nicklaus
held court from a folding chair just inside the gallery. Justin's mom celebrated next to him.

It wasn't over though
with thousands of silent fans watching in expectation - Lingmerth sank a slippery downhill 7 footer to force another playoff hole. 





 
 
The Final Fist Pump
belonged to David Lingmerth. He would outlast Rose through additional holes and take the victory.

  

_____NORDEA MASTERS 2015_____

TOP: BELLO, UIHLEIN, OLESEN

VALUE:  T. PIETERS, TJART VAN DER WALT, TREVOR FISHER JR, HOEY 

____ROUND 1_____
____ROUND 2_____
____ROUND 3_____

Follow Your Gut
There is something to be said for intuition. I'm not making this up - I swear.  Alex Noren's name popped into my head 4 or 5 times in the last two weeks, out of the blue for no reason. I'm not a believer in ESP, but I do believe in subconscious deductive reasoning and dumb luck. When a name pops into my head - I usually put $5 on them. I was in a rush when I made my bets and left Noren off my list. 

Our brains collects a lot of data, most of which - it doesn't tell us about. Let's hope my internal Psychic Friends Network was wrong. When you don't follow your gut - that number in your head usually hits on the roulette wheel. Not a good feeling. 


____ROUND 4_____  

OUCH! (see above)
Good News Though. I was thinking he was a longshot and I missed a big pay off. 
I just checked and he was at 20-1. $5 would have only made me $100.  Whew!

 

GOLF PICKS BYRON NELSON AND IRISH OPEN 2015

The Humorous History of Open Championships

(click the link above to view article)

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_____BYRON NELSON 2015_____

 PGA GOLF ROULETTE 

 PICKS AND STATS

YOUNG GUNS

like Spieth, Thomas, Berger, Morgan Hoffman, Harman and Danny Lee

are likely to battle it out this week. I do like Jordan Spieth big to win.

Marc Leishman 

ranks highest for this tourney.  

Off the Board in Vegas
I'm still big on young gun Alex Prugh and James Hahn- BUT - there are in the field on the bet sheets in Vegas. 

ALERT!
George McNeil Scratched. 
I took that $10 and covered Jimenez and Grillo in the Euro (Below)
$5 @ 40-1 each

____ROUND 1_____

Young Guns

Spieth, Thomas and Keopka were paired together. They did battle. Justin Thomas caught fire early  (-3) under after 5 holes. Then he gave it all back with 3 straight bogies and finished Even. 

Jordan Spieth

played a clean game as the elder statesman in the group. However, he missed 5 puts inside 10 feet and a chance to take the lead.  He'll have a chance to make up ground and out-perform Rory this week. McIlroy (+9) is likely to miss the cut at his Irish Open. Jordan plays in the morning wave Friday. The greens should be soft and score-able.  However, he said he prefers dry conditions on this course - he wont have those in the morning. In fact - moisture is like to hang around all weekend. He may need to rethink his strategy - if he want to gain ground in his race for world #1.  

We Need a Golf Channel.  You wont get to see Spieth or Thomas play Friday, They Tee Off at 6am (PST) coverage on "Golf Channel" starts at 1pm.  Too bad we don't have a channel that actually shows golf tournaments. 

Steven Bowditch

lit it up with an 8 Under on Thursday. However, he has missed the cut here most years and is unlikely to go wire to wire. The leader is at (-8), but the leaders are at 5 and 6 under. The morning wave Friday has a good chance of being on the first page by Saturday

Jimmy Walker Sole 2nd

scares me a little, he was 76th in recent finishes, but placed 8th here last year. He is only 2 back of Bowditch, playing near home and is still one of the best players on tour.

Our Picks - Hahn and Palmer

are right in it at (-5). Vegas screwed us on Hahn - he was off the bet sheets in Vegas again this week. 

____ROUND 2_____

Wyatt Erp (Jordan Spieth) Returns
and he shot the eyes out of the back 9 on Friday. He's hold up at the hotel down the street smoking a cigar in the bathtub. He may be playing with his roommate Justin Thomas and was outwardly supportive of his playing partners. But he's not playing around. He came for the bounty and sees the Byron Nelson as a Major in his career. For a few dollars more, he'll send his posse to the undertaker. 

Shots Like This
allowed Jordan to end his round with 3 straight birdies and finish (-6), just 3 shots off the lead going into moving day.  Odds are he'll keep moving - everybody wants a piece of him. He's hunting down the world #1 and Doc Holiday was just shot down in Ireland.

Our Picks

Ryan Palmer and  Jerry Kelly First Page

WEATHER DELAY - 33 PLAYERS YET TO FINISH ROUND 2

Leader after 36 Holes

 ____ROUND 3_____

The Quick and the Dead

Wyatt Erp (Jordan Spieth) did not face off with anyone in the town square yesterday. 

He is well back of a posse composed of common folk - leading the tourney. 

Aces Wild

He did shoot a playing card out of the air for the townspeople. A near Ace on his tee shot on the par 3 17th sent the crown into a musical dance number straight out of "Paint Your Wagon". It missed by inches, then spun back 4 feet. He went on to miss that put.

As I reported (above) in Round 1 - Jordan likes that course dry. It could not have been wetter. His scoring prophesies were way off though. He expected 12 under by Friday night. Lucky for Jordan, Steven Bowditch holds the lead at just (-13) going into Sunday. The leaders are only at 10 and 11 under. Spieth will still need 4 under on the front 9 and 4 more on the back to have a shot at saving the town. 

Jimmy Walker Texas ranger

and (Our Pick) his Deputy Ryan Palmer are staked out on the roof of the hotel - looking to pick off anyone who steps out into the strreet in the monring. 

 ____ROUND 4_____

Spieth and McIlroy Expected to Dominate

Instead -Rory missed the cut at Irish and Spieth never got it going at Nelson.

Steven Bowditch Dominated the Field

Other than a minor slip, he hung tough and literally ran away from the field on the back 9 on Sunday. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

His stats were not good coming in. Stats don't tell us he lives there and had his wedding on the course. 

_____IRISH OPEN 2015_____

EURO PGA GOLF ROULETTE 

  PICKS AND STATS

Rory McIlroy

missed the cut last week and at the last 2 Irish Opens. Yes, this he is hosting this week, but that can be a distraction. Always dangerous - but not buying him at 3-1. I got burned not betting him a few weeks ago. Could be a big mistake - you make the call?

Francesco Molinari

is the highest ranked player for this tourney. I like his cool demeanor and experience on this course.

I Love - Danny Willett, and Chris Cook

Both are playing well and are good at the Irish.

Great Longshot - David Horsey

This may fizzle - BUT - he has contended recently and played great at this course in the Walker cup 2007.  

ALERT!
George McNeil Scratched @ Byron Nelson. 
I took that $10 and covered Jimenez and Grillo.
$5 @ 40-1 each  

____ROUND 1_____

Rory McIlroy 3-1 Again?

The Sportbooks in Vegas really need to get a grip. A missed cut last week and 2 years in a row at the Irish Open = 3-1?.  As I mentioned pregame - I'm not buying it and glad I didn't. Rory will be fine, but he won't win every week. Not even Tiger did that, in his heyday, and he rarely went for odds less than 6 or 7-1. He is arguably the best in the world, when he is on. The real race for #1 will come down to who wins more often, Rory or Jordan. Rory can dominate with length and a great all around game. Jordan may have an edge in the consistency department with a more controlled course management style. 

Others Struggled Too

The look on Fowler's face tells the story, and he was the only one in the group to break even on his round. Kaymer was 7 Over. 

Our Top Pick Willett

showed up as expected on the first page day one. He along with Chris Wood, Horsey and last minute cover Grillo are all in the mix with a host of others.

____ROUND 2_____

Survivor Irish Open

continues with a leaderboard that snuffs out the torches of potential winners on a daily basis. You don't win the Irish Open - you survive it. I've always said - golf is like a camping trip, but you get to hit stuff. Some of the best players in the world have lost their flint, and were medicated off the island. Those who remain will try to form an alliance with a course that dos not favor the weakest player to make the final three. 

 

  












____ROUND 3_____

Big Moves on Survivor Irish Open

Several players must have found hidden Idols or something. The course record is 5 Under.  Max Kieffer shot 6 Under today!  Kedjelson leads after a 4 Under 3rd round. 

We'll have to wait till Sunday to see if these trinkets are real?

Rafa Bello 125-1 T2

An Eagle on 16 put him (-6) in sole 2nd. 

An errant tee shot on 18 left him with a make-able bogie put that dropped him into a tie for 2nd. At those odds - he's in my alliance and I have a $5 ticket that pays $630 if the jury hands him the cash. 

Fowler - sent to Redemption Island
on Sunday with a 2, 8 ,8 finish Saturday.

 

 ____ROUND 4_____

Slippery When Wet

So much so all 3 leaders dropped form 5 and 6 under to a playoff final of (-2)

Rafa Bello 125-1

Had every chance to win or tie - but failed to manage the course and left himself short by a stroke

 

 

 

 

 

Soren Kjedsen

hung tough and won the playoff