GOLF PICKS THE PGA CHAMPIONSHIP 2015

 

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FINAL PICKS WED 8-12-15 5:36 PM PST

HISTORY - HISTORY AT THIS EVENT
RECENT - RECENT FINISHES 
DUE - DUE TO WIN 
MY TOP PICKS
BEST VALUE
*** - I HAVE MONEY ON  

TOP FAVORITES

***1. JORDAN SPIETH (6-1) WESTGATE
GOOD RECENT AND HISTORY AT MAJORS
2 MISSED CUTS 2013,2014 AT THIS VENUE

***2. RICKY FOWLER (20-1) WESTGATE
GOOD HISTORY AND RECENT

3. JASON DAY (12-1) WESTGATE
GOOD HISTORY AND RECENT

4. BUBBA WATSON (12-1) EVERYWHERE
GOOD HISTORY AND RECENT

5. DUSTIN JOHNSON (15-1) EVERYWHERE
GOOD HISTORY

6. RORY MCILROY (12-1) WESTGATE
GOOD HISTORY
COMING OFF INJURY

TOP CONTENDERS

***7. MATSUYAMA (40-1) WILL HILL
DUE / GOOD RECENT
 
***8. WEISBERGER  (200-1) WILL HILL
GOOD HISTORY AND RECENT

***9. DANNY LEE (80-1) WESTGATE
GOOD RECENT

***10. ROBERT STREB (80-1) WILL HILL
GOOD RECENT
 
***11. KISNER (100-1) WILL HILL
DUE
  
SERIOUS LONGSHOTS

***12. MARC WARREN (250-1) EVERYWHERE
GOOD HISTORY AND RECENT

***13. JAMES HAHN (300) 1 WESTGATE
GOOD RECENT
 
***14. ILLONEN (500-1) EVERYWHERE
GOOD HISTORY 

***15. DUBUISON (150-1) EVERYWHERE
GOOD HISTORY

***16. JUSTIN THOMAS (75-1) WILL HILL
DUE AND RECENT

***17. DANIEL BERGER (300-1) EVERYWHERE
 DUE

Too Many Favorites
In addition to History at this Event and Recent Finishes - performance at Bridgestone last week is an important factor. All winners in the modern era placed 22nd or better there. This bodes well for Spieth who was hot during the final round.  Watson, Streb, Danny Lee and Ricky Fowler rounded out that top 10 last week. Jason Day was T12. Dustin Johnson was 53rd. However, he has played links well and was robbed of a victory here by a DQ in 2010.  It would not surprise me if his redemption was the headline on Monday.

Links and Bombers
Several players have mentioned that this course does not play like a true links course. You can not run it up the fairway here.  Spieth commented that there are few if any holes that allow reckless length. Those factors combined with the sheer number of favorites that should win -  lead me to put the bulk on Spieth and cover some great longshots. 

Course Management 
Jordan was on fire in his final round at Bridgestone. He made a 6 footer to win a big money match on Tuesday. That range of put has been his Achilles heel. So, I'm buying his stock...again. Spieth has paid better than any mutual fund for me this year. He's walking around that place right now with the confidence of Burt Reynolds in his heyday. There is no better player in the field and his team will have that course staked out like a Pete Dye construction crew.

Young Guns 
I can't pass up Thomas or Berger at these odds. There are a lot of great young players coming up. Most have never played this course, and make no mistake - "none" of them should be compared to Spieth. However, If Jordan does stumble - they are worth $5 at those odds.

If you have the bank - covering the top 6 (above) would be a sensible conservative move. 
I'm taking a huge risk skipping 3-6.