GOLF PICKS TPC SAWGRASS THE PLAYERS 2015

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_____PREGAME_____

All Odds William Hill Sportsbook Vegas.

Jordan Spieth (7-1)

I like Jordan to win this one. He is the only player I have heard says he actually likes the course. 

You need to hit fairways and Greens and have a great short game. It fits his game. He went 2-1 at WGC and got sent home - while others with the same or lesser scores advanced. He is Pumped and ready to play. He wants the #1 position and is playing with him tomorrow.  He is know as a giant killer in pairings. But this is a real test - he wants #1 one so bad - needs to keep his head down and not get caught up in the moment. 

Rory McIlroy (7-1)

Will be paired with Spieth and is hot as hell.  I did not cover him this week and may regret it. I did not for one reason. He just came off a 6 day marathon at the Match Play and would need to win back to back.  He's capable though and you should probably cover him for $50.

Mark Leishman  (125-1)

Has been dealing with a seriously ill wife - but is Highly Ranked for this tourney and playing well coming in. Probably the best long shot of the bunch.  Adversity outside the game often turns a tournament into a needed escape and results in more relaxed effective technique.

Tiger Woods (30-1)

Is always worth a cover at 30-1. My fear is that he has not lost his dip. This has caused him to be wild of the tee. He was missing left and right with the driver in practice rounds. Like Leishman - I think his recent breakup could actual clear his head from tee to green and help his game. It worked for Rory.

Jim Furyk (23-1)

Doesn't like thiscourse - but plays it often. He Ranks High and has a recent win and a 4th last week at WGC. History of choking, but good at the players. Not my top pick  - but a must cover

Billy Horschel (60-1)

I just like his attitude. He is talented and due to put together a winning round very soon.

Longshots

Like Justin Thomas, Daniel Berger, Morgan Hoffman and Danny Willett are a bargain at 100+ to 1. 

FULL STATS AND PICKS
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_____ROUND 1 _______

A Tale of Two Scorecards
Rory McIlroy won the first round of this weeks title fight in a unanimous decision. The Judges scored it -3, -3 , -3  Rory +3, +3, +3 Jordan. 

Spieth was in control of his own destiny regarding all of his previous career goals. Telling the world he wants to be world #1 was the obvious next step - but he can't control that. Plus he is, in essence, calling McIlroy out. That is not Jordans style. Spieth is friends with Patrick Reed, maybe his "I'm top 5" attitude rubbed off on him. The current #1 just happens to be on fire right now.  Never set a goal dependent upon the actions of another person. Rory is in his head now and he put him there. Jordan should put that goal aside and when asked what his goal is -  reply - "Just win baby! He was doing a pretty good job of it before he raised the bar on himself.

Jordan and Tiger had a lot in common today.  They both missed fairways and burned the edge on several puts. Their scorecards and prospects for tomorrow are quite different though. Prior to the tourney - Tiger said if you're game is on - the course is easy. If not - it can be brutal.

Speaking of "on". Tiger Woods is still dipping his head 6 to 10 inches with his driver and irons. When you watch him tomorrow - pause him on the Tee box. Hold your finger on the TV screen atop his hat - then go frame by frame and pause again at his lowest point. It's obvious. When he does not dip as much - his shots are better. He turned it around near the end and is still in it at +1. He'll have the advantage of playing a softer calmer course in the morning wave tomorrow. 

Jordan Spieth said his body alignment was off pregame and he's still trying to fix it. At first I was puzzled. I had a rant ready about how no one - especially a pro - should be testing out any thing new, a few days before a tourney, That was not the case - he's trying to fix a glitch in his swing.

I'm a 10 handicap and know how to self correct. You could see the disconnect in his swing as he warmed up next to Rory. That leads me to believe the glitch originated in his sub conscious. Nothing a Tee behind the ear, and turning his hat backwards can't fix. Hope he doesn't spend hours on the range tonight. Coordination comes from repetition.  Practicing when you are tired or your swing is off is counter productive. It just burns bad technique into your muscle memory. He'd be better off binging on Netflix and just waking up fresh in the morning. A clear head and half a dozen slow motion swings will fix the problem tomorrow. 

The bad news for Spieth - is that he will be in the late wave tomorrow and have wind to deal with. This puts him in danger of missing the cut. An early Tee Time today was a gift he squandered. However, He won by 6 strokes in Australia in windier conditions with rock hard greens. So, I disagree with Mike McAllister at PGA.com who wrote off his chance to win this one with a first round 3 over. 

I believe news of his demise has been greatly exaggerated.  However, he needs to fix his head and his swing this morning. That is a tall order for anyone. If he does - it is further proof - he is one of the greatest competitors ever to play this game. If he can't and misses the cut - I hope he spends Saturday and Sunday as far away from a golf as possible. He needs to enjoy life and the PGA is just one part of it.  He's 21 and needs to act like it from time to time. There's got to be a Kegger party somewhere in Texas this weekend.

Our Picks - Kevin Na and Billy Horschell are on the first page with a few picks - Brendon Todd, Ben Martin and Troy Merritt - who were not on the sheets in Vegas. My Top Longshot pick Marc Leishman is only 2 back. Plenty of other picks in the running and it's early. No one will go without at least one a bad day this week. 

- Rick Jansen

_____ROUND 2 _______ 

Scary Fun House

could describe round 2. If it were put to music - Insane Clown Posse would be more fitting than Celine Dion. There were eagles and there were head on collisions with a course that plays by strict rules and penalizes anyone who drifts out of their own lane. They all went in the front door with high hopes and some just never came out. Jordan vanished along with Rose, Kuchar and Phil.

Jordan Spieth 

denied any rivalry between him and Rory again yesterday. "I'm not at his level yet".

His goal of becoming world #1 is appropriate. Verbalizing it was not. A mistake any of us would have made. Imagine telling the media your goal is to beat your rival - then being paired with him a week later. advantage rival. Lesson learned. He'll be fine. Rory rules WGR and Spieth rules Fedex. You can't win every week. Not even Tiger did that. If he continues to win one every 2 months - which he has been doing - he will be in a class with Woods and Nicklaus. Grade him quarterly just like revenues. One win per quarter will make hm the best stock on the exchange. 

Tiger Woods

Looked like Mr Magoo missing 3 foot puts by 3 inches. Then I saw the rest of the field doing the same. The real problem was missing fairways and greens. My prediction that he needs to lose the dip in his swing was correct. The good news, he made the cut and has 2 more days to test his game on a track that will expose his weaknesses even further. He fixed his short game, he can fix his swing if he just uses common sense. Every certified teacher will tell you to keep your head still. Let's just hope it take less time for him to loose the dip in his swing  - than it did for him to loose the dip with glasses and a man purse.

Rory McIlroy 

Is world number one and the hottest player in the world. That was not the case 2 months ago. There is a rivalry with Spieth as long as they both keep winning. He is the best player in the field this weekend. Not betting him and sticking with Spieth - could bite me in the ass for a 2nd weeks in a row. There are always 2 or 3 low odds favorites each week. Knowing who not to bet is as important as who to bet. Hopefully I was right and the 6 day marathon in match play slowed him enough to let someone else win this week. No regret sticking with Spieth - he was top 10 in the last 2 last year.  But we have to be strategic about who we put the big chips on each week and throw loyalty out the window. Hindsight is 20-20. I need to weigh a few more intangibles on Wednesday next week. 

The Good News

Na is tied for the lead, and several of our longshots snuck in the fun house, survived, and have tickets for 2 more days. The leaderboard will be erased more often that a substitutes chalk board. We wont really have leaders until back 9 on Sunday. The winning score has been (-13) the last 4 years. Doubles are lurking on every hole -  just waiting to jump out an scare away any lead. Anyone 7 under or better after Saturday - has a chance in the final round.

- Rick Jansen

_____ROUND 3 _______

Time for Some Traffic Problems in Florida

Christie isn't closing any bridges, but 16 players are within 3 shots of the lead going into the final round. This should really be fun to watch. Golf Channel early then switch over to NBC.

Chris Kirk (-10)

holds the lead at 10 under. As you know, he has been on my radar. But, like a dozen other real contenders - was not on the bet sheets in Vegas. Kevin Kisner (-9) - is back as well and threatening to win - along with Chesson Hadley (-7). All 3 of these picks were in the field - Un-bettable in Vegas

Justin Thomas (-8)

I was about to try and settle for a $100 profit this week (I spent $200, $120 on Spieth) with Horschel or Na paying about $300.  Then J.T. as I'll refer to him from now on - caught fire. He broke the record for birdies with 10, and only had 3 bogies turning in a 7 under round - to finish just 2 of the lead. I got him at 125-1 for $5 to pay $625. He is a close friend and college rival of Jordan Spieth. He would love to show his buddy he can win too. I wouldn't mind either 

Rickie Fowler 

could be the biggest threat to my cashing that ticket. He is within 3 and due for a win. He registered a 69.69,. and a 72. This is an important test for him to shoot low tomorrow. Either that or remain labeled the Anna Kornikova of Golf. 

Our Other Horses

Kevin Na (who doubled 18) and Billy Horschel who also dropped shots at the end today are both just 3 off at  (-7).  

Rory McIlroy (-6) 

Will probably need a 7 under round to match last years winning score of (-13). He's capable, just not sure if he can shoot that low on this course playing his 10th round of tournament golf in just the last 10 days - coming off match play. 

- Rick Jansen 

 _____ROUND 4 _______

5 Car Pile Up

The leaders almost simultaneously bogied and dropped out of the way for Justin Thomas to take the lead and his first win. He had 7 birdies and 3 bogies Saturday. When he did not produce the birdies early - it became a matter of avoiding bogies. You have to get there a few times and learn how to win. It was painful watching the wheels fall off Kevin Na as he and Kelly both dropped 2 shots together.  Na came back and just missed a miracle birdie on 17 - but In the end, it was Fowler, Garcia and Kisner fighting it out in a playoff.

Then There Were Two

Garcia came up short in the 3 hole aggregate playoff format. Fowler and Kisner moved to the 17th island green for sudden death. After years of catering to 12 year olds (and making a fortune doing it) - Fowler was looking to finally shake his all style no substance persona. He was recently voted most overrated by players on tour. A bit unfair as he did place top 10 in every major last year. 

High Hopes

Kisner stuck his approach within 10 feet, game over? Then Ricky hit a stinger missile that looked headed for the water - just feet from the edge. Then, it bit, and landed inside 6 feet. Kisner had a chance to answer but just missed his 10 footer. 

 

Fowler Takes Relief 

Fowler pushed his put in for a win that produced a real look of relief on his face.

Tongue and Cheek.

Ricky got a little bit of both as he took the girl and the cash. 1.8 million to be exact. His mom (pictured left) seemed less enthusiastic about the girl.

 

"NEW" - Golf Roulette

Kisner (who I've been betting) was not on the bet sheets in Vegas. Fowler did not rank high for this tourney - but has been on my bet list.  Bad miss on my part. However, it inspired me to adjust my betting formula. It will still be based on results, but I will be looking closely at each Odds category - so I don't miss anyone and calculate cost and profit more closely. . My new Golf Roulette sheet will force me to consider all players at each odds level - 0-12-1, 15-25-1, etc. It will be much easier to follow than the long stat sheets I normally post. 

I'm hoping you'll play along at home and make a few bucks in the process. That new format will be up for Wells Fargo in the morning

- Rick Jansen