GOLF PICKS WELLS FARGO 2015

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NEW THIS WEEK!

GOLF ROULETTE

If you read my last post - you know Fowler was a big stupid miss @ 50-1. So, I created Golf Roulette to insure we never miss anyone again. This new format forces me to look at every player at every price level. It also helps monitor the weekly wager budget.

_____WELLS FARGO 2015_____

(CLICK TO ENLARGE)

Risk and Reward!

Wells Fargo offers Great Value this week if you are willing to take a Risk. Unless you are on an unlimited budget  - you can't afford Rory (3-1) and Furyk (18-1) along with all the great priced players that have a real chance of wining this week.

The Risk 

You make the call - put $200 on Rory and you have a decent shot of cashing that ticket. I'm gonna take a chance and spread it around on a field that is full of potential winners this week. 
The odds are somewhat in my favor - it is hard to win twice in a month on tour - each of them has a win within the last 4 weeks..

Starting Line Up

I've listed - in order - the Players with the best Recent Finishes and best History at Wells. 

I also comprised a Team of 2015 players I'm betting each week (when possible) along with a list of 2014 Players I'm still keeping an eye on. I think you will find this easier to follow than the huge charts I usually post. Please comment and let me know.

_____STARTING LINE UPS_____

(CLICK TO ENLARGE)

Note: There are several trending players not on the bet sheets in Vegas this week.

That puts them in the field at around 2-1 and out of reach.

Notables:

Alex Prugh

James Hahn

Danny Lee

Scott Langley

Andrew Putnam

Michael Putnam

Michael Thompson

Robert Streb

Alex Cejka Nick Taylor

Derek Fathauer

Scott Brown

If you are able - keep covering them online.

____OPEN DE ESPANA_____

   UPDATED!!!

Same as Above

Much like the tourney above - Garcia, like McIlroy  is a favorite for a reason.

Throwing it all on him could work this week? At 9/2 - Taking my chances with a few other very hot players. 

(CLICK TO ENLARGE)

Oleson and Uihlein coming off runner ups. 
I also have to throw some on Emilio Grillo.
He missed his first win by one shot at Volvo.



_____WELLS FARGO 2015_____

____ROUND 1_____

Un-bettable
(On my not available list above) Robert Streb leads with a first round 65. 
Our Picks (See Wells Golf Roulette Top of Page)
Patrick Reed and Chesson Hadley on the first page.

A Tale of Two Putters
I saw on Golf Channel that Rory just met with putting Guru Dave Stockton. His only advice in the 5 minute lesson - was keep the putter close to the ground. I've been preaching that for years. When you lift the putter - your chance striking off center is greatly increased. This was not good news - as I did not cover Rory this week at 3-1.

The good news for me - Rory has not perfected his new putting stroke and from what I saw is missing the proper stance and alignment to make this improvement work. He got to (-4) then missed several puts - doubled back to (-2). The other putter belongs to Sergio Garcia (See Open De Espana below) 

____ROUND 2_____

Rory Bounces back
Very much in the running at (-7)
Robert Streb is leading for the 2nd day and would be on our Roulette Board if he were on the Bet Sheets in Vegas. We do have Martin Flores on the first page.

____ROUND 3_____

Rory - Worth the Price of Admission

In this case about $200.  As I predicted in the pregame summarry (above) 

[You make the call - put $200 on Rory and you have a decent shot of cashing that ticket.]

Even though I did not cover Rory at 3-1, I was rooting for him to shoot 59.  His putter is working again. That, along with long drives that leave him a wedge into the green, allowed him to shoot 11 Under and run away from the field.

If Jordan Spieth

had 3 top 10s in a row - coming into a tourney this week - I would have put it all on him at 3-1. Then again, at 3-1? Maybe not? The "New" Golf Roulette board would not have made much sense to anyone with one name on it. 

Poor Justin Thomas

Imagine shooting 7 Under to tie the lead. You expect the late wave leaders to follow you and shoot 2 or 3 under - you still have chance on Sunday. Then Rory shoots 11 Under! Justin will be 9 back when he Tees off tomorrow.  Brutal.

Forecast for Sunday

Strong chance of Closing with Scattered Bogies.

Rory will be going for it. So, he'll miss a few off the Tee. 70/30 he shoots low again or drops 3 down to (-15). I suspect they will adjust the Pin Positions to defend against another course record. However, Rory closed 5 out of 6 of his last 6 54 hole leads. 

Web Simpson 

is Rory s closest pursuer, 4 back at (-14). If they do defend the course with tougher pin locations - it will still help Rory - making it even hard for anyone to shoot low and catch him. 

____ROUND 4_____

Race for 2nd
As expected - Rory closed comfortably. He did stall on the from 9 at first - giving the field a chance to catch up. A few tried but hard to shoot 65 or better twice and catch him.

Patrick Rodgers 
who was playing on an exemption - was his closest pursuer. He fought hard for against Web Simpson for a sole 2nd. That would have given him enough prize money to qualify for a full exemption on the PGA tour.  They tied in the end - but even that purse leaves him only about 50k short - with a start this week at Colonial.

PGA GOLF ROULETTE 

RESULTS - 4 PICKS FIRST PAGE

NOTE: STREB WAS A PICK - BUT NOT ON BET SHEETS VEGAS - SO NOT ON ROULETTE BOARD

_____OPEN DE ESPANA 2015_____

____ROUND 1_____

The Mighty Will Fall
or so we hope with Odds on Sergio and Rory at Odds so low we can't afford them. Sergio helped our cause missing puts and turning in a first round 3 Over.

Geography Lesson
I forgot how close Spain is to Africa. South Africans from the Sunshine Tour are giving the Spaniards a run for there money. 

Our Picks
(See Espana Golf Roulette Above)
Jimenez and Quiros in the mix

____ROUND 2_____

Sergio Barely
survives and is well off the lead.

Grillo

Challenged the lead and fell back.

____ROUND 3_____

Grillo High and Dry

Hot, Dry conditions and turtle back greens have sent a lot of players packing. Grillo once again challenged the lead only to miss green and puts and fall from (-6) to (-3). He did finish at (-4) 3 off the lead. He still has a chance to get his first win tomorrow - but will need to start hitting green and puts. Keep in mind I did not handicap this tourney. I saw Grillo and had to bet. 
Then I saw Oleson and UIhlein and jumped on them too - those 2 came in hot as hell. Oleson missed the cut (+9). Uihlein currently (+7).

___ROUND 4_____

A Familiar Site
Emilio Grillo hanging his head after being in contention and failing to close. In his defense, the course was dry and treacherous. He has a lot of raw talent. 

However, missing fairways and 6 foot par puts down the stretch - tells me he needs some work. Course management and the ability to maintain his mechanics under pressure. Tournaments are not won - they are captured. He will need to be strategic, calculating and have every aspect of his game together to get his first win. 

< After Volvo China: 

Showered in Riches
Morrison gets the big check and a champagne shower from his buddies.

Euro Golf Roulette
Did not produce a winner this week. 
We did have 2 on the First Page of the Final Leaderboard.Jimenez and Grillo

GOLF PICKS TPC SAWGRASS THE PLAYERS 2015

(POST ROUND RECAPS BELOW)

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_____PREGAME_____

All Odds William Hill Sportsbook Vegas.

Jordan Spieth (7-1)

I like Jordan to win this one. He is the only player I have heard says he actually likes the course. 

You need to hit fairways and Greens and have a great short game. It fits his game. He went 2-1 at WGC and got sent home - while others with the same or lesser scores advanced. He is Pumped and ready to play. He wants the #1 position and is playing with him tomorrow.  He is know as a giant killer in pairings. But this is a real test - he wants #1 one so bad - needs to keep his head down and not get caught up in the moment. 

Rory McIlroy (7-1)

Will be paired with Spieth and is hot as hell.  I did not cover him this week and may regret it. I did not for one reason. He just came off a 6 day marathon at the Match Play and would need to win back to back.  He's capable though and you should probably cover him for $50.

Mark Leishman  (125-1)

Has been dealing with a seriously ill wife - but is Highly Ranked for this tourney and playing well coming in. Probably the best long shot of the bunch.  Adversity outside the game often turns a tournament into a needed escape and results in more relaxed effective technique.

Tiger Woods (30-1)

Is always worth a cover at 30-1. My fear is that he has not lost his dip. This has caused him to be wild of the tee. He was missing left and right with the driver in practice rounds. Like Leishman - I think his recent breakup could actual clear his head from tee to green and help his game. It worked for Rory.

Jim Furyk (23-1)

Doesn't like thiscourse - but plays it often. He Ranks High and has a recent win and a 4th last week at WGC. History of choking, but good at the players. Not my top pick  - but a must cover

Billy Horschel (60-1)

I just like his attitude. He is talented and due to put together a winning round very soon.

Longshots

Like Justin Thomas, Daniel Berger, Morgan Hoffman and Danny Willett are a bargain at 100+ to 1. 

FULL STATS AND PICKS
(LEFT CLICK CHART, RIGHT CLICK VIEW IMAGE / LEFT CLICK MAGNIFY)

_____ROUND 1 _______

A Tale of Two Scorecards
Rory McIlroy won the first round of this weeks title fight in a unanimous decision. The Judges scored it -3, -3 , -3  Rory +3, +3, +3 Jordan. 

Spieth was in control of his own destiny regarding all of his previous career goals. Telling the world he wants to be world #1 was the obvious next step - but he can't control that. Plus he is, in essence, calling McIlroy out. That is not Jordans style. Spieth is friends with Patrick Reed, maybe his "I'm top 5" attitude rubbed off on him. The current #1 just happens to be on fire right now.  Never set a goal dependent upon the actions of another person. Rory is in his head now and he put him there. Jordan should put that goal aside and when asked what his goal is -  reply - "Just win baby! He was doing a pretty good job of it before he raised the bar on himself.

Jordan and Tiger had a lot in common today.  They both missed fairways and burned the edge on several puts. Their scorecards and prospects for tomorrow are quite different though. Prior to the tourney - Tiger said if you're game is on - the course is easy. If not - it can be brutal.

Speaking of "on". Tiger Woods is still dipping his head 6 to 10 inches with his driver and irons. When you watch him tomorrow - pause him on the Tee box. Hold your finger on the TV screen atop his hat - then go frame by frame and pause again at his lowest point. It's obvious. When he does not dip as much - his shots are better. He turned it around near the end and is still in it at +1. He'll have the advantage of playing a softer calmer course in the morning wave tomorrow. 

Jordan Spieth said his body alignment was off pregame and he's still trying to fix it. At first I was puzzled. I had a rant ready about how no one - especially a pro - should be testing out any thing new, a few days before a tourney, That was not the case - he's trying to fix a glitch in his swing.

I'm a 10 handicap and know how to self correct. You could see the disconnect in his swing as he warmed up next to Rory. That leads me to believe the glitch originated in his sub conscious. Nothing a Tee behind the ear, and turning his hat backwards can't fix. Hope he doesn't spend hours on the range tonight. Coordination comes from repetition.  Practicing when you are tired or your swing is off is counter productive. It just burns bad technique into your muscle memory. He'd be better off binging on Netflix and just waking up fresh in the morning. A clear head and half a dozen slow motion swings will fix the problem tomorrow. 

The bad news for Spieth - is that he will be in the late wave tomorrow and have wind to deal with. This puts him in danger of missing the cut. An early Tee Time today was a gift he squandered. However, He won by 6 strokes in Australia in windier conditions with rock hard greens. So, I disagree with Mike McAllister at PGA.com who wrote off his chance to win this one with a first round 3 over. 

I believe news of his demise has been greatly exaggerated.  However, he needs to fix his head and his swing this morning. That is a tall order for anyone. If he does - it is further proof - he is one of the greatest competitors ever to play this game. If he can't and misses the cut - I hope he spends Saturday and Sunday as far away from a golf as possible. He needs to enjoy life and the PGA is just one part of it.  He's 21 and needs to act like it from time to time. There's got to be a Kegger party somewhere in Texas this weekend.

Our Picks - Kevin Na and Billy Horschell are on the first page with a few picks - Brendon Todd, Ben Martin and Troy Merritt - who were not on the sheets in Vegas. My Top Longshot pick Marc Leishman is only 2 back. Plenty of other picks in the running and it's early. No one will go without at least one a bad day this week. 

- Rick Jansen

_____ROUND 2 _______ 

Scary Fun House

could describe round 2. If it were put to music - Insane Clown Posse would be more fitting than Celine Dion. There were eagles and there were head on collisions with a course that plays by strict rules and penalizes anyone who drifts out of their own lane. They all went in the front door with high hopes and some just never came out. Jordan vanished along with Rose, Kuchar and Phil.

Jordan Spieth 

denied any rivalry between him and Rory again yesterday. "I'm not at his level yet".

His goal of becoming world #1 is appropriate. Verbalizing it was not. A mistake any of us would have made. Imagine telling the media your goal is to beat your rival - then being paired with him a week later. advantage rival. Lesson learned. He'll be fine. Rory rules WGR and Spieth rules Fedex. You can't win every week. Not even Tiger did that. If he continues to win one every 2 months - which he has been doing - he will be in a class with Woods and Nicklaus. Grade him quarterly just like revenues. One win per quarter will make hm the best stock on the exchange. 

Tiger Woods

Looked like Mr Magoo missing 3 foot puts by 3 inches. Then I saw the rest of the field doing the same. The real problem was missing fairways and greens. My prediction that he needs to lose the dip in his swing was correct. The good news, he made the cut and has 2 more days to test his game on a track that will expose his weaknesses even further. He fixed his short game, he can fix his swing if he just uses common sense. Every certified teacher will tell you to keep your head still. Let's just hope it take less time for him to loose the dip in his swing  - than it did for him to loose the dip with glasses and a man purse.

Rory McIlroy 

Is world number one and the hottest player in the world. That was not the case 2 months ago. There is a rivalry with Spieth as long as they both keep winning. He is the best player in the field this weekend. Not betting him and sticking with Spieth - could bite me in the ass for a 2nd weeks in a row. There are always 2 or 3 low odds favorites each week. Knowing who not to bet is as important as who to bet. Hopefully I was right and the 6 day marathon in match play slowed him enough to let someone else win this week. No regret sticking with Spieth - he was top 10 in the last 2 last year.  But we have to be strategic about who we put the big chips on each week and throw loyalty out the window. Hindsight is 20-20. I need to weigh a few more intangibles on Wednesday next week. 

The Good News

Na is tied for the lead, and several of our longshots snuck in the fun house, survived, and have tickets for 2 more days. The leaderboard will be erased more often that a substitutes chalk board. We wont really have leaders until back 9 on Sunday. The winning score has been (-13) the last 4 years. Doubles are lurking on every hole -  just waiting to jump out an scare away any lead. Anyone 7 under or better after Saturday - has a chance in the final round.

- Rick Jansen

_____ROUND 3 _______

Time for Some Traffic Problems in Florida

Christie isn't closing any bridges, but 16 players are within 3 shots of the lead going into the final round. This should really be fun to watch. Golf Channel early then switch over to NBC.

Chris Kirk (-10)

holds the lead at 10 under. As you know, he has been on my radar. But, like a dozen other real contenders - was not on the bet sheets in Vegas. Kevin Kisner (-9) - is back as well and threatening to win - along with Chesson Hadley (-7). All 3 of these picks were in the field - Un-bettable in Vegas

Justin Thomas (-8)

I was about to try and settle for a $100 profit this week (I spent $200, $120 on Spieth) with Horschel or Na paying about $300.  Then J.T. as I'll refer to him from now on - caught fire. He broke the record for birdies with 10, and only had 3 bogies turning in a 7 under round - to finish just 2 of the lead. I got him at 125-1 for $5 to pay $625. He is a close friend and college rival of Jordan Spieth. He would love to show his buddy he can win too. I wouldn't mind either 

Rickie Fowler 

could be the biggest threat to my cashing that ticket. He is within 3 and due for a win. He registered a 69.69,. and a 72. This is an important test for him to shoot low tomorrow. Either that or remain labeled the Anna Kornikova of Golf. 

Our Other Horses

Kevin Na (who doubled 18) and Billy Horschel who also dropped shots at the end today are both just 3 off at  (-7).  

Rory McIlroy (-6) 

Will probably need a 7 under round to match last years winning score of (-13). He's capable, just not sure if he can shoot that low on this course playing his 10th round of tournament golf in just the last 10 days - coming off match play. 

- Rick Jansen 

 _____ROUND 4 _______

5 Car Pile Up

The leaders almost simultaneously bogied and dropped out of the way for Justin Thomas to take the lead and his first win. He had 7 birdies and 3 bogies Saturday. When he did not produce the birdies early - it became a matter of avoiding bogies. You have to get there a few times and learn how to win. It was painful watching the wheels fall off Kevin Na as he and Kelly both dropped 2 shots together.  Na came back and just missed a miracle birdie on 17 - but In the end, it was Fowler, Garcia and Kisner fighting it out in a playoff.

Then There Were Two

Garcia came up short in the 3 hole aggregate playoff format. Fowler and Kisner moved to the 17th island green for sudden death. After years of catering to 12 year olds (and making a fortune doing it) - Fowler was looking to finally shake his all style no substance persona. He was recently voted most overrated by players on tour. A bit unfair as he did place top 10 in every major last year. 

High Hopes

Kisner stuck his approach within 10 feet, game over? Then Ricky hit a stinger missile that looked headed for the water - just feet from the edge. Then, it bit, and landed inside 6 feet. Kisner had a chance to answer but just missed his 10 footer. 

 

Fowler Takes Relief 

Fowler pushed his put in for a win that produced a real look of relief on his face.

Tongue and Cheek.

Ricky got a little bit of both as he took the girl and the cash. 1.8 million to be exact. His mom (pictured left) seemed less enthusiastic about the girl.

 

"NEW" - Golf Roulette

Kisner (who I've been betting) was not on the bet sheets in Vegas. Fowler did not rank high for this tourney - but has been on my bet list.  Bad miss on my part. However, it inspired me to adjust my betting formula. It will still be based on results, but I will be looking closely at each Odds category - so I don't miss anyone and calculate cost and profit more closely. . My new Golf Roulette sheet will force me to consider all players at each odds level - 0-12-1, 15-25-1, etc. It will be much easier to follow than the long stat sheets I normally post. 

I'm hoping you'll play along at home and make a few bucks in the process. That new format will be up for Wells Fargo in the morning

- Rick Jansen

GOLFPICKS WGC CADILLAC 2015

FINAL

 
 _____________________________________________________________

MATCH PLAY CAN BE A BAD BET

I'M NOT SPENDING MUCH THIS WEEK

LOOKING FOR VALUE AND FOUND SOME

THIS COURSE REWARDS A GREAT SHORT GAME AND GIR

SPIETH HAS BOTH AND IS MY FAVORITE

MY PICKS ARE LISTED BELOW IN BLUE

GOLF PICKS ZURICH AND VOLVO CHINA

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 TOP PICKS POSTED WEDNESDAY

FINAL NOTES: 

STATS MATTER - SOMETIMES

I'd rather be lucky than good? Honestly, I'd rather be both.

I did not have time to do the stats for either tourney this week.

All my bets were gut picks. The end result - we had a pick in each tourney - come with one shot of winning. 

On the other hand, I did pick Jason Day as my only low odds Favorite at Zurich. He led most of the tourney and looked liked money. Then he fell back and didn't close. Was I wrong about his maturity? NO!  I just didn't check his stats at Zurich. He had not played there in 5 years. Rose on the other hand - has a top 15 or better there in his last 3 visits.

_____ZURICH_____

__FINAL ROUND__

WOW!  We had our picks all over the first page of leaderboard all week. In the end, one of our 60-1 picks came within inches of winning.  Justin Rose was leading by 1 over Tringale on the final hole. Rose butchered his Tee shot an approach. Looked like Tringale would catch him. Then Rose drained a 15 footer for birdie (-22). Tringale (-20) needed an eagle on 18 to tie. He went for the green in two, carried the bunker - and ended up on a ridge in front of the green. His chip shot rolled 3 inches short of eagle. 

__ROUND 2__

6 PICKS ON TOP!

 

Only One favorite Pick - Leading
I only picked 1 Favorite this week. Jason Day. I laid off Justin Rose and D.J - who has been wild off the Tee and erratic with the putter at Zurich. Day is making me look smart. He seems mature, humble, relaxed and in control. 

There are still 2 days left.  The good news - we have 6 players on the first page and 4 more in the mix. Hot last week - Troy Merritt will miss the cut. But we still have a $20 ticket that pays $1600  Kevan Kisner (-7) 5 off the lead - with 2 rounds left. Would love to see him get hot.

__ROUND 1__

DE JONGE BACK HOT AFTER DELAY  TIED FOR LEAD
 RAIN DELAY. O'HAIR LOW ON FRONT 9 SLOWED ON THE BACK T3
BERGER AT IT AGAIN 2 OFF THE LEAD
DAY JUST 3 OFF

  _____VOLVO CHINA_____

__FINAL ROUND__

I only picked 3 guys. 2 were leading the tourney on going into the weekend.

They fell hard. Then, out of nowhere - on Sunday - our 3rd pick - Emilio Grillo catches fire.  He got to (-19) the final winning score. Then with just a few wholes left - he put one in the water on a par 3 - Double Bogey  (-17).  Local WU Ashun (-19) won in a playoff against Howell (-19).

 __ROUND 3__

You think of a Volvo as safe. The 3rd round was anything but - for leaders Quesne (+4) and Peter Uihlein (+4) - who literally hit a tree. My hands were pressed against the dashboard watching them bogey par 5s. Both players slid out of control and drove right off the leaderboard. It could not have been more disastrous if Susan Sarandon was at the wheel.

Previous winner Alexander Levy drove the course safely 1 under and shares the lead going into Sunday with Howell and 2 Chinese locals. 

I only glanced at the bet sheet this week for players that were hot last week. An obvious miss was Li Hao-tong who was not only hot last week - he lives there. Doh! Also playing on his home course and tied for the lead is local WU Ashun.

Our 3rd pick Grillo (-4) - is now on the same page as yesterdays leaders. Unfortunately they are all on the 2nd page going into tomorrow. The good news is - they are all still within 4 or 5 shots of the lead on a course that is playing like Enter the Dragon meets Thelma and Luis.

 

 __ROUND 2__

OUR TOP PICKS QUESNE AND UIHLEIN

1ST AND 2ND

 _________PREGAME__________

_____ZURICH_____

THE ODDS

are low because this is anyone's game this week. 

Wide fairways and accessible greens.

THE RISK

Is that a favorite like DJ or Rose could run away with it @ 10-1.

THE VALUE 

Lies in some great longshots

MERRITT & KISNER

Damn near won last week

LOVE THEM @ 80-1 

 JASON DAY (10-1)

Is a Fav I will cover

He's due and I Like the Maturity I saw 

when interviewed at The Masters.

 BILLY HORSHCEL (30-1)

Won here 3 years ago

He likes the course

YOUNG GUNS 

Like

MORGAN HOFFMAN, BERGER AND JUSTIN THOMAS

Are worth betting
ALEX PRUGH
may be the best of them 
NOT ON BET SHEETS VEGAS

SEAN O'HAIR,  De Jonge

&

CEJKA

Have been hanging around the leaderboard lately

 LONGSHOTS

like

HUH, HADLEY AND ISHIKAWA 

Could easily compete this week

_____VOLVO_____

The 3 Guys Listed Above

GRILLO / UIJEIN / QUESNE 

Damn near won last week

and

have been in China
playing for a week already

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