Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Pebble Beach

Update: Captcha and Registration removed - Should be easier to comment on a post now - We Welcome Your Comments! Click Below. 

One of Our Picks Wins (see below) 
2 for 2 This Week on PGA and EURO!
______________________________________________________________

PREGAME PREDICTIONS

No Bill Murray
This was going to be an article insisting anyone new to golf - watch the Pro AM this week at Pebble. It starts Thursday during regular play - most Pro Ams are on Wednesday before the tourney. To be Honest - Murray was the only thing ever worth watching - at any Pro Am. He is off promoting "Monuments Men". Looks like a stinker and so does the Pro Am at Pebble now.  Enjoy the Professional Golf. 

Surfer Kelly Slater did Tee Off first with the media - stating that "Golf is a game - not a sport." Interviewed Kelly at The Wedge in Newport Beach just after he shredded a 30 foot monster on Boogie Board. Those waves break in shallow water just 20 feet from the beach. Good Guy. He's right. One look at the physique of last weeks winner and it's hard to argue. Anything you play in Dress Slacks or Pajamas is not a sport. Golf and Baseball are games. He mentioned it was a great game. Failed to mention it is also the most difficult game on the planet. 

Just Teasing Kevin Stadler. Congrats on a great win last week and a Father Son trip to the Masters. See Full Story

No Rory. No Tiger. Love Jordan!
$50 on Jordan Spieth @20-1 - Next 3 Tourney's
I'm Betting $150 Pays $1000 within 3 Weeks.
Note: This is an extremely difficult course. Jordan, like everyone else in the field -  will have to play his best game to win this one. 

This Weeks Odds and Picks  


Full Odds and Recent Finishes


 ____________________________________

Round 1
____________________________________

Go Jordan!
Pebble consists of 3 courses in order of difficulty. The Hardest (SH) Spyglass Hill. then (PB) Pebble Beach and the Easiest (MP) Monterrey Peninsula. All of the 1st day leaders came out of (PB) or (MP) with Rookie Loupe leader for a day @ -8. Jimmy Walker T2 @-6. Keep an Eye on Brian Davis - He was close a lot last year and is way overdue for a win this year.   Jordan Spieth had the low round on the treacherous (SH) course @ -5.  A magnificent start for Spieth, who will now play one of the Easier courses. Weather is expected to be a factor. A 40% Chance of rain by Noon Today  - But winds only 5-10 MPH. 


SnorFest
Yesterday was the worst coverage I have ever seen. There was a 3 hour rain delay - but that was not the problem. Without Bill Murray for comic relief - they needed to step up. They do have Peyton Manning and Tom Brady along with Bill Belichick. But the idiots at Golf Chanel did not follow any of their rounds. We were treated to about 5 minutes of highlights showing the NFL Stars. The other, unwatchable 3 hours - consisted of old corporate tools who couldn't pay their own families to watch them play. 

Programing Disaster
Then to add insult to injury - the 330pm coverage started. After the 3 hour delay - by 3:30pm Half the field was just rounding the back 9. So when I saw the coverage was going to continue - I was stoked. Then I realized they were replaying the same unwatchable morning disaster I had just endured.

The Pig has Landed
If you tuned in early to see players warming up at Pebble - you were disappointed. Instead - We were treated to several hours of Racist Pig and Environmental Criminal - Donald Trump, and his spawn - opening the refurbished Doral course. He landed in his private helicopter and was greeted by the brown nosing Golf Chanel staff. I lost respect for Rocco Mediate - who was all smiles playing with that jerk.  

Thanks Golf Channel!
You always do your best 
to make me wanna hate
 a game I love.  


If you l think I am being hard on Trump
Take a closer look

 Environmental Criminal


 Racist  

Tiger woods declined an invitation to Trumps New Years Eve Party.  I guess Trump figured all black people look alike - so he just hired another black guy who looks like him. Golf Channel had Given Trump his own show. I believe Arnold Palmer owned GC then. That's where I originally saw video of the disgusting charade. NBC later purchased the Channel. What you can't tell from the photo - is the guy really looks nothing like woods up close.
This all happened around the same time Trump was questioning Obama's Birth Certificate.



____________________________________

Round 2
____________________________________

Program Reminder: Coverage Starts on Golf Channel 10 am - 11: 30 (PST) 
Resumes on CBS 12 Noon.

All's Well that Ends Well?
After a few nasty emails (which I'm sure had no effect) - Golf Channel did show Peyton Manning shoot a pretty decent round. He is just south of Seattle - but the crowd noise didn't bother him. He sucked up what had to be a bitter loss at the big game and signed autographs between every hole.
 
A Little Tense
Golf channel followed Manning - but didn't bother to follow Jordan's round although he led most of the day. So, all we had was the leaderboard to follow. With all the Ams in the field - it takes for ever to finish and seemed like he was standing still on the back nine. His scorecard reflects just the opposite. Spieth Mirrored his performance on the front nine - opening with 3 birdies and finishing with a Bogie on the back to Finish Tied for the Lead with our other pick Jimmy Walker at (-9).

Shot at $2000 - $100 @ 20-1
Pebble is far from over. However, concerns over Spieth Stalling on the easier (MP) course yesterday were put to rest. The condition's were cold an wet making Monterrey Peninsula a little more than a walk in the park. He handled it with the patience of a seasoned veteran to stay tied for the lead with Walker. He has a chance to pull off his second win on Sunday - 3 months younger than Tiger - when he got his 2nd.  If he does - and you are watching Sunday - Know this - I will be yelling louder than I did during the Superbowl - and I called Seattle by 14. 




Full LeaderBoard

____________________________________

Round 3
____________________________________


They Call the 3rd - Mariah
Play has been suspended Due to 35 MPH winds. 
Tune to CBS for Noon Coverage - hopefully it will Resume.  
Wind should decrease and Rain should start. 
Not cashing my tickets yet - But haven't lost faith either - . Go Jordan!
Play expected to Resume in about 45 minute around 1:30 (PST)
A Host of Celebrities trying to entertain us the meantime


Not sure if this is good or bad for Spieth. He opened with a Bogie - not playing bad - just missed a 10 foot put and another to miss a Birdie on the Par 5 2nd. You have to birdie the Par 5s if you expect to win. He started tied for the lead with Walker at (-9). Walker (-10) and Mahan also (-8) have an advantage on the easier (MP) course. Jordan T2 (-8) is on (PB) - the Coastal course - making the wind a bigger disadvantage to him that his two closest competitors on the inland (MP) course

Normally a fresh start after a Bogie is good. However, the wind was probably keeping Walker and Mahan from taking a bigger lead too. This is a big test for Spieth or any golfer. If he can hold serve with that kind of Course and Wind disadvantage - well...let's just say- this is the stuff legends are made of. 

CBS Ended Coveage - Jerks!
Golf Channel (Not a CBS Affiliate) showing repeat of Morning Round. Idiots!
Play will end soon and they'll finish the 3rd round in morning.
Spieth was enjoying his am partner and the experience. Dropped 4 shots in the process - T7 Now (at -5) Walker 6 stroke lead on him and 4 on Summerhayes T2. (-7) - been trying to bet Summerhayes for weeks -never available at the books. 

Jordan's lucky in a way. Took all day to play 9 holes. Could have been 18 down the tube before he woke up and got serious. In his defense - if you hate slow play - you can sympathize - 3 hour delay, plus waiting on Ams to finish holes could distract anyone. Lot of time standing around with press everywhere, and wind and rain. Understandable - but now it's time to ignore the amateurs and win a tournament. Needs to put blinders on and shred the back 9. But hey - he's only 20 - not giving up on you kid - get it back! You can do it! 

Update: 5:00 pm On the bright side - we do have Our Pick Jimmy Walkers leading the tourney.
7 Holes left - still (-5): If Spieth doesn't get it together - can get him at better odds on him the next 2 weeks. But not giving up - Go Jordan!
Walker still at only (-11) on 14 and 6 way tie for 2nd down to (-6)
Spieth's lucky so far - been Lucky Before?

 
Update: 5:25 pm Not today - hoped they'd end the day before he could finish. Needed to regroup. Crashing Hard @ (-3) (6+) after 14. Happens to the best of us.
Update: 5:30 pm Just Birdied 15 - Not a Quiter (-4)
(16th) Left it 4 feet short - Par put coming.  
He'll have that Put for Breakfast I guess. 


Update: Sunday Am
He finished the 3rd Round by missing his Par put and bogeying 16. He then shot a 2 on the Par 3 17. He went on to Bogie 18. +6 for the Round (-3) for the Tourney.

Painful Rituals
In the Amazon Jungle - young men coming of age are covered in Bullet ants and must endure the pain to become a man. In America - Young men on the PGA tour play coastal courses in bad weather. Jordan Spieth could have skipped Torre and Pebble and picked up an easy win somewhere else this season. He's not that kind of guy. He wants to be number on in the world the world - the old fashioned way - by earning it - On every course in every condition. He prefers and enjoys it that way. He was bitten in the final round at Torre and badly stung, multiple times yesterday, in the 3rd round of Pebble.

I said that Spieth was at a great disadvantage going into round 3. Playing on a coastal course - exposed to the wind. Playing a difficult course as his co-leader Jimmy Walker played the easier (MP) course. The stuff legends are made of if he pulls it off. So, not puling it off doesn't make him a bum either. I predicted last year that he would be Marque player by the end of the year. He has. I'll say now that he will be world number 1 by sometime next year. I will continue to bet on him at every opportunity. Perhaps at better Odds next week - Depending on how he finishes the final round.

____________________________________

Final Round
____________________________________

Sunday Pregame: It's Walker's Tourney to win or Lose with a 6 shot Lead at (-13). 2nd place contenders are at (-7).  

Spieth Final Round. Jordan stopped the bleeding quickly in the final round - opening with an Eagle on the 2nd. He did not light up the front 9 - but finished with a birdie on 9 to go 6 under. 
As nice ads a a miracle finish would have been - the real goal for Spieth was to right the ship for Northern Trust next week. Walkers short game is so good this tourney - not much of a chance for him to tank anyway. Spieth went on to patiently birdie 16 and 18 to finish in an 8 Under tie. Crazy when you are dissapointe about a 20 year old taking 2nd in one of the hardest tourneys of the year.

Update: Walker After 13 Holes Has a 4 shot lead over Jim Renner (-9). 

I know a lot of you are suffering in bad weather and wouldn't dream of passing up a sunny day of golf right now. So, I wont either. Gonna go play 9 at the local Par 3 and come back. I will call the final holes from my DVR in a couple hours.

Walker After 14 Holes Has dropped his lead to (-12)
Dustin Johnson missed his Eagle Put on 18  to Finish (-10)
Mahan Massacres his birdied put left on 14 (-8)  
Walker Striped his Tee Shot on  Par 4 15. Sticks Approach but rolls out about 20 ft away.
Put hits something - bounces rolls left of hole 3 ft to go for Par. Pushes in for Par!
Renner (-9) 3rd shot on 18  from fairway 120 away. - Sticks it within 2 ft. Pushes in for Birdie to Finish (-10) 

Mahan still has a chance (-8) on 15. 
Na (-8) also on 18.  

Walker Striped his Tee Shot on Par 4 16 Dog Leg Right - right Fairway
Mahan Pushes 50 ft put just left - Pushes 2 footer in for.(-8) after 16
Walker Literally sticks the approach on the green - within 12ft.
Mahan Tee shot on Par 3 17 - slices it right - in and out of bunker - settled in rough just above the trap - 60 ft behind the dog leg right green.
Walker Runs birdie put right past hole 3 ft. 
Na - 2nd shot on Par 5 18 - bounce off bunker into fairway at 30 feet in front of green - hole placement left front - shortsided?
Mahan 2nd shot chip on par 3 17 short - doesn't turn the corner - sitting 40 feet back - behind the curve of the green for Par.
Walker Pushes it in from 3ft (-12) after 16. 
Mahan chipping off green for par on 17-good chip but 2ft short - He'll bogie at best
(-7) with one par 5 remaining - 9 under his best possible finish if he eagles 18 
Na - was not short sided - chips it -bounces twice - almost pops in - rolls past - 8 ft left for birdie.
Walker on 178 yd par 3 17. Hitting 6 iron. Pin set back behind bunker on far left of green. Sticks it safe in center of green - 40 ft back from hole. 
Mahan (-7) tee shot - on Par 5 18 -  into gallery rough right. - Finishes (-7)
Na - misses 8 footer on 18 just past right - pushes in for Par Finishes (-8) 
Michelson misses 6 foot par put to push in for Par on Finishes (-3)  
Walker 40 foot birdie put on par 3 17.  Pushes it right - hooking back left toward hole - settles short left by 3 feet. Long 3 footer coming. Pushes it right 1 foot past! 
Bogie (-11) with one hole left! 1 shot lead 
Walker on 18th Tee 543 Par 5 . Trees and bunker right. Ocean cliffs left. Tee box overlooks cliffs on left. Shot lands log right - in jagged sandy rough behind 2nd fairway bunker - trees in front left. 
Walker 2nd shot - has a tight shot - ball surrounded by short fescue. Hits it clean - lands safe - right rough siting up.  
Walker 2nd shot - has a tight shot - 
Walker 3rd shot Par 5 18th - 120 yds sand wedge from rough wind forward 6-10 MPH left to right. Green between cliffs and bunker on his left.Draws it over bunker - Sticks it just past hole about 35 ft - just short of fringe.
Walker 4th shot 30 foot put - 2 put to win. OH NO! Rolls past right by 6 feet!
Walker 1 Put to Win from 6 Feet. 
Camera shot from the Hole - Rolling towards us - sliding right - ITS IN!

WALKER WINS! 
#3 for Him this Season


 Re: Jordan Spieth
He played the 2nd worst Round of his PGA Career and Finished with the 3rd lowest score. What does that tell you about his chances the next few weeks?
$100 of the Walker win is going right back on him.  

Final  

Full LeaderBoard 

JOBERG OPEN


One of Our Picks Win!  
(see below)
_____________________________________________________________________

PREGAME PREDICTIONS


I have waited for a long time for Addison De Silva to be on a Bet sheet. William Hill has him at 100-1. Doesn't Play Much. Could Miss the Cut - But worth $10 to Pay $1000
Check out his 2014 Stats. Driv Acur - 79% / GIR 77% / If he Puts well - look out. 
Sand Saves - 0 for 0 - What does that tell you? Guys throwing Darts!


LVH had very few players on the bet sheet this week - so I placed bets at William Hill. Lower odds on some - but more players and some good long shots.


Caution - Really low odds on Favorites: 


Charl Schwartzel 7/2
George Coetzee 10/1
Richard Sterne 20/1

 
Not Gonna Double up on them at those Odds. 

Steve Webster is my Favorite this week. 

This Weeks Odds and Picks 


____________________________________

Round 1
____________________________________

Anybodies Game
Round 1 ended with (Our Picks) Molinari and Coetzee Tied for first @ -7 and Otto 2nd @-6. 
Da Silva still in it at -2 - playing East. Like Torre and Pebble the players rotate through separate courses. In this case the East and West Courses. So, the leader board won't reflect the true leaders until the end of the 2nd round. Oddly - most of the leaders came out of the harder East Course.
 ____________________________________

Round 2
____________________________________

De Silva on the Cut Line...
GC airs Euro tourneys Tape Delayed -early morning - like 4am. So, Like all golf - I DVR it. About a half hour before Morning Drive cut away to the tourney - the jack asses at Golf Channel showed the score. Way to go Dip Sh_ts. So I knew Molinari holds the lead at (-11) and I didn't see Addison De Silva anywhere on the leaderboard

I was not gonna watch it and just check the score online. Then I thought - what the hell, fast forward - see if you see De Silva. Sure enough - near the end - there he was. Black shirt, the older chiseled face Brazilian was in the fairway. He looks like a bull fighter, or the star of a Spanish Novela. The cut line was high today at -4. He was -3 with 180 yds to go on his approach to the par 4 on the 17th hole. I yelled "Stick it!  He did. 

However, he was left with a tricky 4 foot uphill curving put. 50-50 chance he makes it - under that kind of pressure - sink it or go home. He only had one hole after that to survive the cut.  He pushed it way right, I sighed.. then it started hooking back left...Will it make the hole.. Yes! (-4)
Fast Forward - Par 5 18. 3rd shot from the fairway...60 yards away. I Yell "Stick it! He does - within 2 feet! Pushed it in to finish (-5). Still a huge long shot, but worth $10 just for the entertainment. My 100-1 is now worth 65-1, as 65 players made the cut. Everyone left this weekend is within 7 of the lead with 2 days left. So. still Anybodies Game.

Names to Watch
My cover Coetzee (-10) and David Horsey (-10) fighting for the lead.  Danny Willett (-9) and Thomas Aiken (-8) along with Bourdy (-8) hangin around the leaderboard again. Prohibitive favorites Otto (-7) and last weeks standout Grillo (-6) still right in the mix. 

 ____________________________________

Round 3
____________________________________

Kill or Be Killed
The leaders killed it on day 3 - scoring between 6 and 9 under. Local Thomas Aiken and Justin Walter share the lead at (-17). (Our Picks) Aiken (-17) and maybe Coetzee (-13) were good covers at 20 and 10-1. The good news - with perfect weather expected tomorrow, is that a 5 or 6 stroke swing is possible at the top. The bad news - that leaves only 8 players with any hope of pulling off a win. Of those 8 - we do still have a 3rd horse left in the race - early leader Molinari at (-11) 6 strokes back. He didn't shoot badly today - but Par was a death sentence for most after today's scoring frenzy.

De Silva shot a disappointing Par - taking him completely our of the running at (-5). He did finish 1 stroke better than Schwartzel (-4). So my business partner Michael Lawrence -wins the argument that he won't bet anyone that hasn't played in a while. That was the case with Schwartzel and De Silva. I will still bet De Silva -anytime he surfaces on a bet sheet.

The Field has shown it's Hand
The other good news - is that familiar names are biting the hook for a win every week. With 2 South African Tourneys left (African Open / Tshwane) - we should be able to pick another winner at one of the last two Sunshine Tour stops. I will be posting and updated Report Card on how each has fared in the last 4 or 5 Tourneys.

Reversal of Fortune
Aiken and Walters (-17) were alone at the top at the end of round 3. Korean Hopeful Joeng was a few stokes back. All three fell and fell hard. Goerge Coetzee on the other hand - ate away at his deficit making long puts and paring the rest to shoot 6 under and take the sole lead at (-18). 
The previous leaders all had the opportunity to retake he lead - Even late in the round - but none could make a put to save their lives. 
Bitter Win
For me not George. You study stats and find an unknown player you think can win. You mention their name and people say who? I get Coetzee for 2 years off and on. He finally got his first win yesterday. I made nothing. His pregame stats were horrible. He ranked well below 150 in Drive accuracy and GIR (see chart above). Combine that with him going off at Tiger Woods like odds (10-1) and you can see why I made nothing on his win. I did pick him and hope someone with deeper pockets than I cashed a nice ticket this week.
Lesson Learned
What made Coetzee a good pick was his Recent finish (4th at Dubai)play and history at that tourney (3rd last year). Stats should be thrid in priortiy of picking a winner.

Congrats George!
Long time coming - you earned it!

Final