FINE TUNING THE 3 WAY STRATEGY

UPDATE WED 6/5

Some of my analysis Friday morning was a but premature. One day into the event, imagine that? Huge win on Cantlay $1140 and $178 in position bets, so it turned out great, but learned some things too.

POSITION BETS
The $10 position bets did great! We Spent $80 on 9 Bets and Won $178. 

The only problem is trying to stay within a $100 - $150 per week budget. I want at least 6, and preferably 8 position bets per event. So a mix of $5 and $10 bets, paying a minimum of $25 or maybe $30 should work. 

LIVE BETS
The obvious problem I failed to address with Live Bets, is that only one can win. I went overboard on those in week 22 and had the whole first page covered on Sunday. There is a value there, but in moderation.
RUNAWAYS
After Keopka jumped out and held a 5 shot lead all weekend at the PGA Championship, I was focusing on a runaway leader on Thursday. BTW, DJ almost caught him and I was able to bet DJ at a good price late Sunday. But, how often does a player jump out to a big lead on Thursday and win? Not often! Spieth had a fast lead week 22 and lost.
BET LIVE LATE
I will stick with the obvious assertion that nothing means anything until after the cut Friday night. Chasing early leaders is a fools errand. Save $20 and cover a high percentage leader Sat Night or Back 9 Sunday. Live bets are good High percentage wagers, but I will limit Live Bets to around $20 or $30 dollars.

BUDGET
I'm still fine tuning the budget. I would like a $100 per week budget. That's $500 for a 5 week month. If we set our minimum win at $250 for 2Win bets going in, 2 wins a month $500, breaks even. Then you add position bet wins, and a Live Bet win over 5 weeks and you have a nice profit. Also a lot of 2Win Bets pay $400 plus, or more like Cantlay $1140. 1 Longshot every few months can double the bank too.  Here's the catch. To bet a few favorites, a few mid and longshot bets 2Win going in, you need about $60, Add $60 for Position bets and $30 for Live Bets - you're at $150. The multiple tour factor may address that. Two evens cost twice as much, but present an option that may work....

MULTIPLE TOURS
I can win just as much, just as often on the European Tour as The PGA. However, at $150 per week, per tour, were talking $750 per tour or $1500 for a 5 week month. I cant afford that and don't recommend anyone who cant, even thinking about it. 
Some weeks we only have 1 event worth betting, like week 22 and 23. Maybe $150 is fine those 1 event weeks and cut down to $100 per tour on 2 tour weeks? 

I'll keep sharing as I learn. As always, "please never bet anything you cant afford to burn. There is no such thing as a sure thing".

-Rick Jansen
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FRIDAY 5/31

We've picked more winners, pre tournament, than anyone else in the world the last 7 years. My goal is to improve betting and money management strategy. The goal is to help you make money every month. We are not done yet, but learning and improving every week. 

LIVE THURSDAY
Yesterday, Thursday, Spieth moved quickly to -6. I covered Moore leading -7, at 16-1. But, needed to be watching the first few holes of Spieths early round, could have covered him at 10-1. Now he is 5-1. Watching the early morning wave today, hoping they make a move and buy him at 10-1 again. However, Thursday and Friday morning are risky, Spieth could fall off in the afternoon today.  You have to wait till the cut on Friday to get a feel for how any players is really doing.  He looked broken last week, so no pre tournament money on him, we will see? 

Thursday bets should be reserved for preventing an uncovered, run away winner early. Like Keopka a week ago - 5 shot lead early, odds dropped to -125. I missed Spieth and overspent Thursday on other contenders, may pay off, but keeping Thursday to a bare minimum moving forward. 

FOLLOW LIVE BETS HERE:   https://twitter.com/RickOnTheStrip


POSITION BETS
I started betting probable favorites and contenders at 3-1 @ $10 for T10 and T20 Finishes. 
After running the numbers, we seem better off waiting to bet them live at the same or better odds. Our longshots V Taylor and Stallings @ 250-1 to win, are doing better than our 3-1 T10s? The knock of course on Live Bets is they have to win. Only 1 will. So looking for decent odds for now on T20 finish bets at 10 or 12-1 for $5 now and will continue to fine tune that part of our 3 way Strategy.

Here are my Updated Notes from Thursday:

GOLF PICKS WEEK 22 PGA

Little over budget this week. But like our picks and position bets. Still testing out this strategy. Not betting Euro this week - crazy format - hard to win.
Always Follow https://twitter.com/RickOnTheStrip
for Live Bets each night starting as early as Thursday. 

WEEK 22 - 3 WAY STRATEGY 
Note: Last weeks grid said wk 22 - but it was actually week 21.

3 WAY STRATEGY REVEIW

We hit a live winner on Euro and several position bets, but last week proved once again, There is No Such Thing as a Sure Thing...

The 3 Way Strategy offers several advantages. 

This is an experimental strategy we are fine tuning each week.


2 WIN 
These bets offer the highest return, but you cant cover all you predicted winners, and as we saw last week (above), there is no such thing as a sure thing. However, the odds are high going in, and this is how you hit big several times per yr, and we have hit 2Win bets placed pre tournament consistently, once or twice a month. 

POSITION BETS
These bets are only available online and pay if a player finishes T5,T10,T20 or better. Depending on which of those bets you place. The chance of cashing several winning tickets from the same tournament is an exciting proposition. This can also help cover losses on 2WIN bets. However, it only covers 2WIN losses if you make more on proposition bets than you bet on that strategy. $60 in position bets needs to pay more than $60 to cover other wagers. For that reason, this week we are betting more Legit T20s at $10, rather than $5 each.

LIVE 2WIN BETS
Position bets are not available after the tourney begins. All Live Bets are 2WIN. As last week showed, Favorites and your best laid picks can miss the cut and leave you with a handful of losing tickets. Live Bets allow you to wait until Friday night, after all players have played a morning and afternoon round and made or missed the cut. This eliminate about half the players you could have bet, that are now watching on TV.  The downside is that whomever is in the lead, will now be at very low odds. If you didn't bet Keopka with a 7 shot lead, you better hope your position bets hits. Used properly though, this is a very sensible strategy. I am looking to increase the percentage of Live bets in our budget. 

Always Follow Live Bets here:  https://twitter.com/RickOnTheStrip


The 3 Way Strategy Applied
Here are some tips we are using to apply this strategy....

2 WIN (40%) 
Pick a low Odds Favorite, some Mid Odds Contenders and always cover a Longshot or two. dozens of winners hit every year at over 100-1. I try to make sure my 2WIN bets pay a minimum of $250 or more. Mid Range $400+ Longshots $500+. At $150 a week, you need to cash some decent sized tickets once or twice a month to stay in the black. Stay on a few great players that are due for a win. Even at lower odds they can pay big. Spieth made us $5000 the year he broke through and Xander has made us over $200 this year already. You my only have 2, 2win bets some weeks, make them count.

POSITION BETS (40%) 
Stay within your budget, don't run away from a solid 3 or 5-1, bet $10 instead of $5 and  make sure each bet pays $30 or more. (Still experimenting with this strategy).

LIVE BETS (20%)
You can make a case for this strategy being 80% of your budget. However, I do not want to give up the pre tournament 2WIN bets we have had success with, and position bets offer the best chance to win. These bets take a little work and require your attention each day of the event. This week I will be looking at the leaderboard, Thu, Fri, Sat and Sunday. Friday is a great live bet night, once the cut has been made. Saturday night it is really narrowed down and you may only have a few choices left 3 or 4 back. Sunday, if the leader is in range, is your last chance to grab a winner. I'm only allotting $10 per night on Live bets. Don't chase, be willing to take a loss one week. It's better than going way over budget and still not hitting a winner. 

My goal with this strategy is to hit some big tickets once a month, while making money, or at least cutting loses each week. I'll post this weeks picks, using this strategy tomorrow morning.

-Rick Jansen

GOLF PICKS WEEK 21 PGA & EURO

3 WAY STRATEGY

2 WIN
POSITION (T5/10/20)
LIVE BETS

This is an experimental week, as we configure the best possible 3 way strategy over the next few weeks. 

Always Follow
https://twitter.com/RickOnTheStrip
For Live Bets!

PGA 

EURO

GOLF PICKS WEEK 20 PGA CHAMPIONSHIP

POST GAME

Keopka ran a way, but for a 2nd week in a row, our Position Bets cut our losses.

Matt Wallace Paid $60

Jazz Janewattananond Paid $65

NEW 3 WAY STRATEGY THIS WEEK!

2WIN / POSITION / LIVE 

I will post Here by Wednesday.
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CAUTION!
HISTORY
This event is being played at a different venue, at a different time of year. Therefore, you can't really factor recent history at the event.  However, I did make several picks based on performance in 2009 at Beth Page. Surprisingly, several of the players T20 in 2009 are currently trending. For instance Lucas Glover won in 2009, Tiger, Rory, Sergio and Phil, just to name a few. 

BUDGET
I bet more than usual, not recommended on a blind tourney like this. But $100 of that was pre bets on Tiger, Cantlay and Xander. 

POSITION BETS
To hedge, I placed over a dozen Position bets, to finish T10 or T20. The potential total payout on those is over $1300. A third of that would make us money. Moving forward, I will add more position bets for favorites. The risk on positon bets this week, is they are not all solid favorites.    


LIVE BETS
Like our Friday winner last week, I will check the leader-board Friday Night and potentially hedge a few first page players - we did not cover. 

UPDATES AND LIVE BETS - ALWAYS FOLLOW https://twitter.com/RickOnTheStrip


PICKS (Updated Thursday Night)

GOLF PICKS WEEK 19 PGA & EURO

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EURO

FRIDAY LIVE BET WINNER! 

 

Always follow:
https://twitter.com/RickOnTheStrip
For Live Bets during tournaments!

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 British Masters

WDs - Lypsky & Lorenza Vera, 
Took a nice flyer on Robert Karlson at $5 @250-1  $1250
Fleetwood and Hatton are legit favorites.
I also like Lewis & Horsfield as legit contenders. 
3 decent T10s too

AT&T Byron Nelson TX

Spieth does not have a strong history here, but it is Texas and hes due. 
I like Leishman, Bjerregaard and Stallings a lot.
Several good T10s with a chance too. 

Picks  
#PGATour @ATTByronNelson
Added 
Scottie Scheffler $5 @66-1
Dylan Frittelli $5 @100-1

GOLF PICKS WEEK 18 PGA & EURO

POST
WINNER ASHUN WU T10!
He dominated and almost won at 225-1. 
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Some Great Longshot on #PGATour this week. They all have great history at this events, including Watney, Nick Taylor and Castro.  Caution - solid favorites too. I went with the bigger odds this week - except Phil - who I hate - but ranked 1st this week for Wells. Ricky and Rory ranked high too.

On #EuropeanTour - Covered a lot of solid favorites and 2 longshots with good history at Volvo in Ashon Wu and Wang.  

Bank Bets